Content Plans – Post Quarantine Edition


Well my friends, it has been an interesting 2+ months! We went from excitement for March Madness to betting on Belarus & Nicaraguan soccer, table tennis, KBO baseball and horse racing! Who would have ever thought?? When everything shutdown, I saw a lot of despair among my audience. What the hell would we all do? I saw purported “professional/sharp” bettors on social media and TV simply fold up their tents, planning to wait until “real” sports came back. What a disgrace to the title of “professional gambler”, come on! A real professional gambler, someone who has EARNED that title, does not quit just because their favorite sports/games aren’t operating. A true professional, whether in gambling or in any business uses the mantra of the US Marine Corp… improvise, adapt and overcome!

No MLB, NBA or NHL? OK, what do we have… Belarus soccer, KHL Russian hockey, South Korean Baseball, Horse Racing… guess I better bone up on those sports, find the angles and attack! It’s what I did. As you can tell, I am very proud of the fact that when the sports world shut down, The Sharp Plays didn’t even slow down! I continued reporting the action every day, all day and regardless of how obscure the sport. I updated long shelved algorithms covering horse racing and table tennis. I created new algorithms like the modified KBO totals algorithm and the horse match-up algorithm. I had success and I had failure, but I didn’t sit still nor quit. I am happy that my content was able to provide you some daily entertainment, fun and profit during this time. It has been my absolute pleasure to go through lockdown with each of you! It’s an experience, given the unprecedented nature, that I will remember the rest of my life. How could I forget sweating Nicaraguan soccer together or laughing about the wild action in table tennis? I thank all of you for giving me that experience and the memories!

With life restarting, all of us have a lot of things to catch-up on in the outside world. I have some stretching of the legs to do too. During lockdown, people regularly asked the question regarding a variety of my content… “When real sports return, will you continue covering (fill in the blank)”. So, I thought I would do this article to cover the changes ahead. What content will stay, what content will be modified and what content will be introduced. Here goes…

1) The Sharp Plays Index (CLICK HERE)… When the sports world came to a screeching halt, I stopped updating the TSP Index. There were no sports to really update it with and it didn’t seem proper that using Nicaraguan soccer as an equal to Premier League was a good way to use it. However, we now have Bundesliga and we have Premier League on the way. We also have KBO which has provided a decent amount of volume. So, starting Monday, the TSP Index will be operational and updated daily once again. It’ll be nice to have it back!

2) Horse Racing… Horse Racing has been an excellent way to spend the afternoon. The time flies by, the action is fun and cheap. From my end, I didn’t have any other sports to cover most days the past couple months, so it was easy to compile the horse racing data and run the TSP Power Ratings (CLICK HERE) for every major track. I love seeing the tickets from how all of you are using the TSP Power Ratings to success in both match-ups and standard horse betting. Thank you for posting and sending screenshots to me! Given the success of the entirety of the horse racing content, I think it has earned its place in the daily rotation. However, I will be modifying it a little due to the time involved. With only so much time in the day, I have to shift things around to account for other sports getting back in action. Unfortunately, I won’t have the time to run the TSP Power Ratings for every track and post them to the website each day. HOWEVER, I will cover 1-2 tracks daily using the TSP Power Ratings. The tracks selected will be those tracks that seemed to correlate best with the TSP Power Ratings. I will also continue to provide match-up coverage (assuming the books don’t just take the lines down altogether) using the algorithm. The lines are already getting juiced, but I will still have a daily horse racing match-up play(s), for as long as the values are there. Horse racing carries a ton of nostalgia for me. It’s the sport I placed my first real money bet on in person (underage, don’t tell anyone). I have a lot of memories tied to it growing up. I am happy that horse racing will remain part of the daily content, just at a smaller level than it is today. I will be making this change to more streamlined horse racing content.

3) Lower Level Sports… Every day I get messages for everything from Table Tennis to Costa Rican soccer. I do not mind the messages at all, but I apologize that I am just one person. To properly review market action takes about 20 minutes per market. Not a lot of time, but when you have requests for 5 different markets (which can be 10+ on a busy day), it now becomes 100-200 minutes (2-3+ hours) of time in a day to do properly. I pull up the market, run an analytic on who is betting, review the sharp bettors in action that have been flagged, check the timing and prices of the action, etc.  Small tasks, but they add up in time as I try to decipher the full picture before reporting. If there is anything exciting I will always do my best to cover and report. However, sometimes there is just too much to cover given the time I dedicate. So, in those instances I utilize a triage approach. I spend my time reviewing the biggest markets first and if I have time left, I move down the food chain. Right now it isn’t too bad. However, I have my suspicions that in the next 60 days or less, there will be a lot more going on. So, just to give you a heads-up that, as good as South Korean soccer has been for example, there just may not be the time in the day to cover it. I always do my best, but just be aware.

4) Financial Market Coverage… I have really been pleased with this content (CLICK HERE). I talked about covering the financial markets in February and it was very well received. I began covering the markets in March and April at the website and on Twitter. Since then, not only has the performance been great, but it has been a nice addition and a different twist to what I cover at The Sharp Plays! Sometimes it is good to give the mind a break from the sports markets. Reviewing the financial markets utilizes many of the same techniques, but allows my mind to change gears and look at things in different ways. I will continue to cover the financial market action publicly on Twitter and this website as well as privately within the Financial Market Analytics content.

5) Little John Protocol (Top Score & Wild Moves of the Day)… There’s always something I forget when I do an article, someone asked about the LJP Top Score and Wild Moves of the Day (CLICK HERE). I used to report these when major US sports were going on, so when can we expect them back on Twitter? Typically, for these types of angles to be strong, you need a lot of games/matches going on at once. So, until we have 10+ matches/games in a given day and those to be involving major sports, I probably will not have the Top LJP Score or the Wild LJP Move of the Day. The angles will definitely be back, but it will take another league or two returning before the Top Score and Wild Move return to normal coverage. However, I do expect to have LJP Scores reported on Twitter for different events. So, LJP Scores have already been popping up on Twitter a little recently with Bundesliga, expect these to be popping up more.

6) “Known” Bettor Action (CLICK HERE)… Everyone loves some good “known” bettor reporting. For those new to what it means, a “known” bettor is simply a sharp bettor for the particular sport they are betting on. I will often post that a “known” bettor is betting this or that. For me to report one of these angles, the bettor much be qualified by the book as a “sharp” bettor (someone with a +EV return and over a large sample size) and the bet they are placing must be at least 50% higher than the average bet they place on that sport. So, when those criteria are met, I will usually report “known” bettor action. I have not done much of this recently outside UFC. The reason was simple, there was very little to report. However, these angles are very popular for soccer. So, with Bundesliga now getting going and English Premier League coming back, I will be reporting any “known” bettor action that hits the radar. Unlike the LJP Scoring angles discussed above, all I need is one match and one “known” bettor to step out on a wager to report. So, I would expect to see “known” bettor action before the LJP Top Score and Wild Moves of the Day return.

Any changes to paid content?

1) TSP Live (CLICK HERE)… I recently combined all my paid sports content into one product, one purchase each week. It had been a long-term plan of mine to setup. However, the pause of sports allowed me the time to put it all together. Up to this point, TSP Live has provided live LJP Scoring for soccer and UFC events. I have been very pleased with TSP Live in only the two months it has been operating. In that time, TSP Live has shown to be successful in every sport it has covered. It has already exceeded my expectations when I created the “real-time” system back in December. I can’t wait for all that lies ahead for TSP Live and will continue the evolution of the product! TSP Live will be the only paid sports product I offer, with more features to come!

2) Financial Market Analytics (CLICK HERE)… It’s only been one month for this paid content, but the first month (May) has been a great success and well received! I was able to cover a bunch of positions on my Watch List, discuss the market daily and have had success with the trades I entered. I have already substantially evolved the product (with more to come). Thanks to those for giving this untested content a try on its maiden voyage. I plan to continue this content into the future. As I said, I will still cover trading content each week on Twitter, BUT the FMA content is for those active traders looking for expanded coverage. I look forward to this new wrinkle of paid content.

So, it seems like not too much is changing? Not really. I am just preparing you for the prospect of less smaller league coverage when major leagues come back, fewer tracks covered for the TSP Power Ratings (match-up algorithm will still assess all active tracks), Financial Market content being a regular bit of content and the TSP Index coming back. However, the main change is to prepare you for those days ahead when I won’t be at the computer Noon to night as I have been in the previous two and a half months. If all goes as planned, I expect to be catching up on some missed travel plans, some family time and generally just enjoying summer… while it is here and in case (I hope not) the Fall brings us back to quarantine. Even when I am away (as with my February break), I still post content daily. The content when I am away just might be half of what I usually post/cover in a given day. I know I don’t have to explain all this to you, but I do think of us as a team. I do my best to provide you with quality information you can profit from, you reciprocate through the paid content. The paid content participation supports things important to me and provides for expanded coverage of the action… round and round we go, together! So, I like to keep you abreast of what’s going on with this part of the team. I look forward to a fun summer and the return to normalcy! Please stay safe & healthy. Thank you very much for being a part of the action with me!

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays