“It’s very easy to be a critic. It’s very hard to create. Yet it’s creation, not criticism that builds societies and indeed inspires people.” – Douglas Murray.
Today’s (1/24/20) Algorithm Notes – I was able to run my tennis algorithms and the NCAABB totals algorithm yesterday. It was a 2-2 day as the tennis algorithm went 0-1 but the NCAABB algorithm went 2-1 winning the full game and second half but losing the 1st half. I will look to run both of these algorithms again today. When ready and if there is a qualifying value I will get them up on Twitter! Be sure to also check The Sharp Plays Index page for today’s chart. Records for the currently active algorithms are listed to the right. Algorithms and their selections will be posted daily to Twitter (@TheSharpPlays) and/or on this page for monitoring. Algorithms in testing should not be wagered on for any material amount of money.
“The book doesn’t require us to bet everyday and for the most part they do not have a minimum wager. I will gladly bet very lightly when I have an edge but the overall market is a concern. I will gladly pass, multiple days at a time if necessary, when I do not have an edge. I will also gladly press my action aggressively when the market is in my favor and I have the edge. All of which helps to maximize my ROI and ensure I do not bet just because I need action or worse, I am chasing. It’s tough to have discipline in a business that can elicit strong impulses and emotions but if you can control yourself, you can be a danger to the sportsbooks rather than a danger to your own finances!” – The Sharp Plays
The UFC Algorithm (TESTING) has selected the top value as Carlos Diego Ferreira -239 over Anthony Pettis WIN with a second choice on Osbourne -140 over Kelleher LOSS
I have designed boxing algorithms for years but never really did one for UFC. I designed this algorithm based on my top boxing algorithm. Obviously, while they are both fighting sports, they are very different. I hoped however that the boxing design would provide a good foundation for MMA. So, I started the algorithm and now after each match I assess the performance and look for correlations from previous selections and results. I look at what the algorithm selected, the result of the match and try to locate possible data points that seem to show consistent correlation to the outcome. It’ll be a process but I post it here as it evolves so you can follow along. I do not advise betting any algorithm listed as “testing” for anything more than pizza money. Personally, I do not bet on algorithms in testing. I post them publicly just so you can follow along with the evolution of an algorithm.
If you are looking for free data to use for your algorithms, I love Team Rankings for ease of use and quantity/quality of data (TeamRankings.com).