Algorithms in testing

“It’s very easy to be a critic. It’s very hard to create. Yet it’s creation, not criticism
that builds societies
and indeed inspires people.” – Douglas Murray.


Algorithm Tracking –

I will use the section below to store, for reference, any algorithm’s selections that carry beyond a single day (i.e. tournament match-ups in golf or futures wagers) or those with attached information (i.e. listed pitchers in baseball). Records for the currently active algorithms are listed to the right. Algorithms and their selections will be posted daily to Twitter (@TheSharpPlays) and/or on this page for monitoring. Algorithms in testing should not be wagered on for any material amount of money.


The Full Tournament Golf Algorithm was 12-6 for +5.1 units last golf season. It is 5-5 for -0.7 units so far this season after going 2-0 in the Workday Charity Open with wins on Stallings +102 over Kokrak and Neimann -150 over Spieth!!

 


Betting Math –

Below are some formulas that may help in your betting. I will build this page out as I discuss different formulas. When I do, I will add them here. If you’d like to see some formulas that I don’t have here, send me a message to tell me what I’m missing!

People ask about the calculations for the public & sharp concentrations. I wrote an article with how that is calculated and you can find the article here: “Public/Sharp Concentration, What the Hell is it!

If you are looking for data to use for your algorithms, I love Team Rankings for ease of use and quantity/quality of data (TeamRankings.com). You can also check out FanGraphs.com or even the websites for the sports leagues themselves.


Calculate a Favorite’s Moneyline based on Implied Probability –

-(Implied probability / (100 – Implied probability)) x 100 = Moneyline
A team that wins 72.7% looks like this for the moneyline calculation…  -(72.7/(100-72.7))*100= -266
What that means is this team is a value under -266


Calculate Implied Probability for Favorites based on Moneyline-

Flip that calculation around. If you know the moneyline you can see what that means as to what the oddsmaker is calculating for that team or wager’s implied probability…
Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability
For the example, if the wager is -183 then here’s what that equals in terms of implied probability of the event happening…. 183/(183+100)*100 = 64.7%


Calculate Implied Probability for Dogs based on Moneyline-

Implied Probability (“IP”)= 100/(Plus Moneyline+100) so a +115 dog means… 100/(115+100) = 46.5% IP


Calculate Moneyline for Dogs based on Below 50% Implied Probability-

Moneyline odds = ((100 – IP)/(IP) * 100)… so a 46.5% implied probability means… ((100-46.5)/(46.5)*100) = 1.15


Decimal Odds conversion to Moneyline –

Use the following formula to convert a Decimal of 2 or greater to a Moneyline: (Decimal – 1) x 100 = American Moneyline

Use the following formula to convert a Decimal less than 2 to a Moneyline: (-100)/(Decimal – 1) = American Moneyline


Moneyline conversion to Decimal Odds-

For positive Moneylines, divide the moneyline by 100 and then add 1: (Moneyline/100) +1 = Decimal

For negative Moneylines, divide 100 by the moneyline removing the negative sign and then add 1: (100/Moneyline) + 1 = Decimal