As some of you may know, the daily MLB algorithms (see below) that I post to Twitter are all algorithms that have been designed from scratch in 2019. I have had 1st 5 innings and full game algorithms for years but I never had one for the 1st Innings. So, while lately these algorithms have been off a little, I am quite pleased that the first season ever doing these four algorithms has been quite profitable.
I wanted to do this in-season analysis today mainly because I had the time on a Friday afternoon. With football kicking off tomorrow and only getting busier as the weeks go along, I though no better time than the present to review these algorithms. I will however run another analysis at the end of the season. Here we go…
At the All-Star break, the daily MLB algorithms had the following records…
1st Inn O/U version 1.0 (39-24 +12.9 units)
1st Inn O/U version 2.0 (35-22 +13.2u)
1st 5 Inn O/U (39-25 +12.4u)
Full Game O/U (24-15 +8.0u)
Overall MLB: 137-85 (61.7%) +46.5 units
As of today, August 23rd, the daily MLB algorithms have the following records…
1st Inn v1.0 (42-31 +8.6u) -4.3 units
1st Inn v2.0 (37-22 +15.2u) +2.0 units
1st 5 Inn (43-27 +14.1u) +1.7 units
Full Game (27-21 +4.7u) -3.3 units
Overall: 149-100 (59.8%) +43.8 units -2.7 units
As with anything on Twitter you get the whack jobs that will post that these algorithms are awful. Yes, the last time these folks won 43.8 units in anything was, um, never! LOL! It’s very easy to be a critic. It’s very hard to create. Yet it’s creation, not criticism that builds societies and indeed inspires people. And gives life meaning. (Douglas Murray). Let’s now seriously assess these algorithms so we can have a plan of attack for next season. That’s what professional betting is all about… developing long term strategies to generate consistent and long term profits!
Obviously these algorithms were monsters prior to the All-Star break. For the first half of the season they won 46.5 units and hit at a rate of 61.7%. The reason for this is often simple, the public is betting based on last years data for a good portion of the start of the season. It allows you to find some serious value in not just the MLB markets but most sports early in the season. Then there is usually an adjustment. Bettors now base decisions on the current season’s data. The books tighten up their lines and those tremendous values are no longer found. Then there are changing factors like temperatures getting warmer, humidity rising or falling, pitchers fatigue as the season goes and as the heat turns up, etc. When you combine those various factors, all the UNDER wins we achieved in the cool April and even May temperatures give way to the balls flying a little further. However things cool back down in September and playoff baseball is totally different. So, I look forward to seeing how the algorithms operate for these periods of the MLB season too. Looking at the big picture, while the time since the All-Star break hasn’t exactly been awful, it indeed has not been a winning period. Overall the algorithms are down 2.7 units. Not bad but not winning. However just to show you how close the second half is, if the WAS/CUBS UN0.5 went our way just today, the 2.7 would instead be only 0.6 units of loss. Less than one play from profit!
I will continue running these algorithms through the end of the season. Like I said, I want to see how they handle September and playoff baseball. Viewing those performances will then allow me to see how best to use these algorithms next year. Perhaps in 2020 I will wager on these in April/May and part of June. Then I will take them down as active and just make them observational algorithms (no betting). Then maybe September or October are strong with them and they will be active again. I need a full season to best assess but it does seem, at a minimum, that these are definitely algorithms to follow at the start of the season! We’ll see how they finish out and what the end of the season holds. Then they will become part of my vast arsenal of algorithmic weapons against the book! Even if they are only good at the start of the season, I wouldn’t mind 45+ units of profit before the All-Star break… would you???? Thanks for following these with me!
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays