Some of these questions are redundant but then again, often so are the questions sent in. So, I posted the most frequent questions, in all their forms, and my answers below…
FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) –
What if my line is different from what you post for one of your algorithms?
ANSWER: I always advise to shop around for the best line possible. Anything but the optimum line always opens the risk of a loss, even with just a half a point difference on a spread. However, from a value calculation standpoint… if the algorithm is playing a moneyline, the play is good up to a 20 cent difference from what I post. If playing a point spread, the play is good to a half point difference. If playing a total, the play is good to a half point/run difference or up to 20 cents of juice difference. The only caveat to these rules are tennis and soccer. A half game on a tennis handicap is a dramatic difference given the nature of the game, as is a half goal in soccer. I DO NOT advise taking a worse spread for tennis or soccer than what I list. On the moneyline for tennis and soccer, 20 cents from what I post will still provide calculated value in the play.
What sports do you have algorithms on?
ANSWER: I have developed over 500 different algorithms over the past 20 years. Currently, I have just over 200 that I consider valid for current use. I have algorithms covering various angles in all the major sports: football (soccer), American football (NFL/NCAA), basketball, baseball, hockey, tennis, golf, auto racing, horse racing, boxing, MMA, cricket, rugby, volleyball among several others including special events like the Home Run Derby. I also have algorithms I have designed for the financial markets, voting predictions and a lot more. I love finding ways to use math to predict future events, whether sports related or not.
What book do you get your lines from?
ANSWER: If I am reporting sharp action, I will use the line the sharp money is betting regardless of whether the line is still available. My goal for sharp money cases is to let you know the line they bet so you can see how that compares to the current market. When I have an algorithm play I will primarily use Pinnacle, Bookmaker/CRIS or 5Dimes. Those are my top 3 options for line shopping and wager offerings. I will typically use the best line out of the three.
What book do these figures come from? Where does your information come from? How do you get your information? Why do you get the information? Who is this “known” bettor for such and such play?
ANSWER TO ALL THOSE QUESTIONS: No offense, I do not answer any of those questions nor questions asking for identifying information of the book or the bettors. Anyone who knows the offshore betting industry knows this is the standard procedure for this type of in-depth data. If the books wanted to be connected to the information I provide, they would put it out themselves. Offshore books like anonymity and privacy in their financial and client dealings. Information on who a customer is, where they live, what they do for a living, etc. is protected for the customer’s privacy as well. I have first hand direct access to data from multiple shops and may use that data with the caveat that I do not identify the book, bettor or provide any other identifying or sensitive information. Fine by me. If you are reading this and that isn’t good enough, sorry, don’t follow me. I’ll live.
Why do you spend the time to do this?
ANSWER: Read my background and you will see that the offshore betting business has been in my blood for a long time. I enjoy following and discussing the markets and the action. Social media and now this website allow me to have an enjoyable hobby doing it. The Sharp Plays is a great stress reliever and keeps my mind quite active!
I like this team or this bet, what do you think? I need a bailout, what do you have for me? What’s your Best Bet today?
ANSWER: I do not provide individualized advice on specific games. I also do not believe in the idea of a “bailout” or “Best Bet” play. Not to mention I would never have enough time in the day to address all the requests I get on these questions. Also, I do not provide specific advice for your personal betting. If you send me a list of games or a bet you are thinking about and ask me what I think, I’ll tell you good luck. I do not want to talk you into or out of a bet, that’s up to you. I will post information I have that I find of value and you can then use that information in your handicapping however you see fit. My posts are not intended to put you on or off a team but to be a part of your overall handicapping.
Can you pull some information on a game for me?
ANSWER: It’s nothing personal but I get this request constantly throughout the day. I simply do not have the time to respond to and provide the information on these requests. I totally understand your desire for the data and I am not trying to be nasty but I would be on Twitter all day if I responded to these requests. Sorry! Trust that if I have anything interesting and I am available to post it, I will report it on Twitter.
I wanted to hire you to write an algorithm for something I am working on. Would you be willing to do it?
ANSWER: I truly appreciate you trusting in me with your project! However, I am under contract with a company and may not work with anyone else on algorithms while the contract is active. To avoid any conflict of interest issues, I would not and in some ways cannot accept another project of this nature. Again, thank you for your interest in having me handle a project for you!
I want to purchase your information. How much?
ANSWER: As I said earlier, I do “The Sharp Plays” stuff as a hobby. I enjoy tweeting out the various information and discussing gambling topics, strategies, “known” & recreational bets, messing around with algorithms, betting angles, sharp information, etc. I realize that the information for which I have access is very valuable. I also have been given permission by the books themselves to monetize the information (provided I adhere to some basic criteria). However, I have ABSOLUTELY ZERO interest in operating a daily sports selection service (where I provide rated games and advise you what to bet), being some sort of personal betting consultant, being a part of your betting group or other such endeavor. I appreciate the offer but it is just too much commitment, time, headache and hassle. I thankfully do not need to nor want to engage in the daily hustle at this point.
What is a Robin Hood Selection? What is Sharp Consensus? What is TSP Live?
ANSWER: You can get all the details on Robin Hood Selections by visiting… https://TheSharpPlays.net/rhs/. You can get all the details on the Sharp Consensus by visiting… https://TheSharpPlays.net/premium. You can get all the details on TSP Live by visiting… https://TheSharpPlays.net/tsp-live.
Thanks so much for the win due to your information. Do you accept gratuities?
ANSWER: People regularly Direct Message me on Twitter offering to send me monetary “tips” as a thank you for the profits they gained using the information I post/tweet. I am honored and flattered for you to ask. I thank you for the support! Personally, I prefer to provide you something special in exchange for your support. So, I will offer paid content, usually once or twice a week and I would appreciate your support when I do. If you prefer to provide a gratuity instead, you can do so at www.TheSharpPlays.net/support. Thank you very much for your support!
Do you accept advertising?
ANSWER: No, it’s a hassle I do not want to engage in. However, I may give a shout out to companies I work with, people/businesses I partner with or simply people/businesses I like personally. I also like to give a shout out as a thank you for something someone assisted me on or simply because I like what they are doing. I will not accept money for promotion or marketing of any product, service, etc.
How can I get access to the sharp/public data you have access to?
ANSWER: Work with a sportsbook. I do not get my information from line service providers, from Twitter or from websites. My information is direct from the databases of the sportsbooks I work with. It is not for sale nor is it publicly available through some other provider. There is no way for you to get access aside from working for a book yourself and being granted access to their data. If you are following ticket and money percentages and think it is the same thing, I would advise you to give a read to my article, “Why Ticket/Money Percentages Don’t Tell The Whole Story“.
Who is Mr. Freeze, who is Mr. Poison?
ANSWER: Mr. Poison and Mr. Freeze are bettors who bet offshore with the books I work with and I post their action. I post it because they are uniquely bad in their long-term ROI and winning percentage. To my knowledge they are not on Twitter nor otherwise publicly available. When Mr. Poison was on his epic losing streak in 2019, there were many “sightings” of Mr. Poison and many people claimed they knew who he was. However aside from myself and the GM at the book where he bets, nobody knows Poison’s or Freeze’s real identities.
I need help! Does this game, team, total, etc. Have value? Any sharp or public action on ___________? What do you think about betting _______?
If you asked for personal betting advice, for me to pull information on a specific game, if my algorithm has value on a game you are interested in, where the sharp action is on a specific game or to give you my opinion on one of your bets… I apologize but I don’t do any of that stuff. First, I don’t do it because I do not want to be in a position to be telling you how to bet your money… even if you want me to be. The main reason I don’t do it is that there just is not enough time for me to handle all the requests that come in. So, I just have to pass across the board on doing it at all and for anyone. Most of the time you are messaging me I am not sitting at a computer. I am tweeting from my phone while mobile. I apologize that I do not want to break away from what I am doing to head to the computer or login on my phone to run an algorithm, pull up the data on the game you need, etc. I completely understand your interest in it but while I may seem like a robot, I am not. LOL! If there is something of interest or value I will post it to Twitter. If I don’t post anything on a game to Twitter, either I am not around to do it or there is nothing good. Either way, asking me over direct messages or email will not change the information available or my availability at the time. Thank you for understanding and good luck in your action!
If you have a question about a bet type, wager, team, line, books, etc….
Sometimes the fastest response you can get will come from simply commenting on the tweet that created your question. Often someone in the thread or following me will respond to your question a lot faster than I will be able.
Can you, will you, break down and separate “Known” bettors even further?
ANSWER: Can I, yes. Will I, probably not for the stuff I post to Twitter. The reason is two fold. First it takes time to run the scan on the client and break down their performance. Not a lot of time but it adds up. Second, I know if I do it once I will set a precedent that any time I post “known” bettor information I will receive an onslaught of responses asking for the in-depth information. Of course I can ignore them but it just sets a bad precedent. If you would like this information, I do sometimes provide it when I release a Robin Hood selection based on information and not my algorithms. It’s a way to make special the “known” bettor information I offer as a thank you for taking part in the Robin Hood selection. Otherwise I probably won’t be doing it on a regular basis on Twitter. What I will do is classify them as “X” or “Y”. For information on what that means, visit Classifying Sharp Action – The Meaning of “X” and “Y” Known Bettors.
Why don’t you do a daily service?
ANSWER: The question keeps coming up so I’ll try to address it in detail. I enjoy my freedom! I love the ability to make my own schedule and not worry about some obligation I have to do. Running a service each and every day is a big obligation and commitment (at least that’s how I would treat it) to those people who would be my clients. I don’t want to feel tied down each day because I have to put together selections for a given day or I have to handle support for customers. If someone is paying me for anything, I have now taken on an obligation to them. I don’t want obligations. With what I do on Twitter, nobody is paying me. I can post when I want or not if I am too busy that day, week, month. I can run through The Sharp Plays email or other messages people send when I want to do it. Doing what I do, in the way I do it on Twitter and at my website allows me to retain every bit of freedom I currently have in my life. I have not taken on any real obligations by doing this website or Twitter. I would not trade freedom to make $500 or whatever per customer to run a service daily each month. It isn’t worth it. It is why I can guarantee you, I will never run a daily service of any kind. Sorry!
Everyone has an angle, what’s yours?
ANSWER: Doing what I do on Twitter and this website is a lot of fun for me. The conversations that develop from the things I post on Twitter are educational and entertaining to me as well. Laughing with all of you about Mr. Poison for example is quite enjoyable. What I do at this website and on Twitter is hardly a full-time job. It’s the furthest thing possible from a full-time job. As I have said, I am not old enough to be napping and reading books all day in my retirement. I am the type of person who needs a project. The Sharp Plays website and Twitter is one such little project. When I am not doing things on Twitter, I screw around with my algorithm ideas and designs. I am like Indiana Jones in search of the Algorithm of the Covenant. I am always trying to find a better formula or a new technique. I love using mathematics to solve life’s little mysteries. Developing an algorithm to assess the 1st Inning Yes/No Run Scored prop has come about 100% because of my interactions on Twitter. The Sharp Plays Betting Index is another idea I came upon because of my Twitter interaction. In the end, I share my time & information and you support things important in my life with your purchases and gratuities!
Why should I not just blindly follow the “known” bettor information that you post?
ANSWER: I can say that 98% of casual bettors have no grasp on betting realities. No offense. Most casual bettors think a sharp player must hit 60-65%+ of their bets to be extremely profitable. It is such a statement that is the why the books make a ton of money. It’s because people are chasing a dream. No sharp bettor hits 60%+ on their plays over the long term. For short stretches like a few weeks or a month or two, absolutely. The best sharps I have ever witnessed hit approx. 58% long term. At 58% though, your edge against the house (assuming a high 10% vig) is 10.7%. If we are talking reduced juice, the 10.7% ROI only increases! What that means is for every dollar you put into action, you get 10.7 cents back. What this further means is if you are a 58% long term sharp, betting 200 games at $1100 per game ($220,000 in action) then you are expected to get a return of $23,540. That is AMAZING! When you have a 10.7% edge against the house… you are printing money! What do these figures look like for win percentages of 55%, 56%, 57%? Here you go…
55% = 5.0% means $220K in action returns $11.0K
56% = 6.9% means $220K in action returns $15.2K
57% = 8.8% means $220K in action returns $19.4K
Back to the point of this question. Most casual gamblers have no clue how to manage their bankrolls! I’ll give you an example…for the 4-5 weeks prior to posting this question on my FAQ page, the “known” bettor action I posted on Twitter was been WHITE HOT! It was an excellent run which finished on March 17th, 2019 with a great Sunday performance. From March 18th through the 22nd, “known” bettor action that I posted had 11 wins and 13 losses. Not exactly an awful run however it is a losing run. Despite only two net losses in this five day period, there were followers I saw on Twitter who are beside themselves at the losses. Beside themselves at an 11-13 record after “known” bettor action printed money from February 1st through to March 17th. It is for this reason that even when a casual gambler gets good information, they don’t use it properly. Even if you didn’t experience the past 4-5 week white hot run but you just started following on Monday the 18th, an 11-13 record should not have you on the verge of bankruptcy. If it does, you have SEVERE bankroll management issues!!! I don’t mean that as a joke either. If following an 11-13 record has destroyed you, there is little even the sharpest bettor can do to help you. It is also why I advise those of you on Twitter to use the “known” bettor and other information on Twitter as part of your handicapping… not as a supplement to it. Every gambler can handle a winning streak, few gamblers can handle a losing streak. The losing streak and your management of it is what separates a sharp bettor from a casual bettor. Even those 58% sharp bettors I talk about will have runs where they hit only 20, 30, 40% of their bets. The sharps just know how to manage it. They know how to maximize their hot runs and minimize damage when they will undoubtedly run cold. You want to become a sharp? The first key is learning to bet disciplined and to manage your bankroll. The next key is to understand that no matter how good you are, you are going to have your share of bad/cold runs too. It’s just that sharps realize their hot streaks will always be longer and better than what they give back during the cold runs.
I have A TON of fun operating The Sharp Plays. It’s a blast to share information with all of you and celebrate the wins and share the anguish in the losses. You also help me with ideas and in building the algorithms that I love putting together. Please understand, I do my best to help but I am one person who enjoys the free time I have achieved at this point in my life. While I often respond to questions posted to the comments on my tweets, when I am available, it’s just not possible to respond to everything. As for Direct Messages, I usually check those once or twice a day. Same goes for email. You may have “just one question” but so do dozens of others. I apologize, I simply cannot address all the requests that arrive each day in a timely manner. I do however respond to legitimate email and DM inquiries… eventually. I also use a mail service to sort my email. The service is a human that responds to customer service needs, deletes spam and the vast array of hater mail that arrives daily. Everything else is set aside for me to address. I usually review those messages once or twice a day. Thanks for your understanding!