Today I am traveling so I thought while I am sitting on a plane I might as well think ahead to football. With July being a very boring month in terms of action and value (at least within my calculations), it’s fun to think of football which begins next week! I have been getting a number of questions about what I plan to cover for the upcoming season. For those who do not know, except for my Robin Hood Selections which are usually only one play or fewer each week… EVERYTHING ELSE I DO IS FREE. So, EVERYTHING I am outlining below is 100% FREE this football season! I will be posting my content either to Twitter, my website or both! All you have to do is follow along! The content will be similar to what I provided in other seasons. Except for the Steam Report and then perhaps the weekly newsletter I am tossing around. However for those of you new to following and even those who have followed me for awhile, I thought I would break it all down. Here’s what I am initially planning to cover…
1) Return of the “X” & “Y” Sharp Bettor Action Updates – Over the summer I received a lot of questions asking “where are the X & Y sharp bets?” Those bets are still floating out there but in the summer I step away from the markets. When you look at a computer non-stop really from September through the Super Bowl and then from March through early June, it’s nice to get away from the computer for a few months. Most of my updates in February and especially from June through the end of August are done when I am mobile and posted quickly based on a quick review of the action. Due to that I don’t really have the time, ability or frankly desire to scan for large sharp bets coming down the pipe. So, in February and then again in the summer, the sharp bet reporting goes away for the most part. However with football I will be at the computer regularly on Saturday and Sunday as well as for the weekday prime-time games. I will therefore be back to reporting large sharp bets that get placed throughout the football season and on all sports September through the Super Bowl. As a reminder, I do not advise anyone to treat the sharp bettor action as a sort of sports service. You never know why a sharp bettor is betting a game. They could be playing a middle at another book or any number of things. I do feel there is value in these updates as it might help you in assessing your games but blindly following every bet is something I EXPLICITLY do not advise. To find out about what an “X” & “Y” bettor is, you can read the article… Classifying Sharp Action.
2) Algorithms – I have almost 50 different algorithms covering NFL and NCAA football. I will not be covering all of them on my website and Twitter. First, it is a large undertaking to do it, manage publicly and then update records. Second, it creates an analysis paralysis for the most part. I prefer instead to target the 3-4 top algorithms and offer those plays on a consistent basis for every gameday. For NFL and NCAA, I will be doing the same thing I did with MLB… post the algorithm name, it’s record for all plays that have been publicly posted and then any selections for it. I expect to have one spread and one total algorithm for each sport and then I will also have some guest visits from my other algorithms that cover football. On top of algorithms that already are operational, I will also be testing out an NFL 1st quarter side algorithm that I was working on with success last year and which I would like to play with for the season ahead. I also plan to create and test out a few prop algorithms this season that hopefully all of us can have some fun with. So for the algorithm fans, there should be plenty of active algorithms and those in testing to give you some action.
3) Mr. Poison and Other Fascinating Betting Characters – Mr. Poison was one of the most interesting a bettors I have ever witnessed. I started covering Mr. Poison in February and carried him through the Stanley Cup and even a little World Cup action. Mr. Poison is notoriously bad. For those of you who followed me since February, you will remember how awful he was with his NHL 1st period totals. It was due to his failures in consistently betting against the “Follow The Money 5” which was really the reason I started posting him. We didn’t think he could get much worse and then March Madness began. We all were in for an INCREDIBLE TREAT! Mr. P’s run in March Madness was especially horrific! Anyone fading him in March Madness made an absolute fortune especially when he bet moneyline on three #1 seeds and all of them lost OUTRIGHT! The Mr. P fade MADE IT RAIN big moneyline payouts for all the faders! Overall, Mr. P was a 75%+ March Madness FADE!! It was truly incredible and something you could not appreciate unless you were there to witness it. All of it was posted to Twitter and before any of his bets went off! I expect, based on the fact he did not withdraw any of his funds, that Mr. Poison will return this football season. It also helps that he won over $700K in the NFL last football season. He did however lose badly in NCAA football. Long term, Mr. P is a loser in both NFL and NCAA. So, it would not be a stretch to surmise he got lucky in NFL last year. I will assume we will find out early what this season will hold for him. I will also monitor a number of other gamblers at the books I work with to find any other gems… either great or awful bettors to fade or follow. For information on Mr. Poison you can visit the Mr. Poison page at… Mr. Poison
4) Sharp and Public Betting Reports – In the summer I have typically been able to post the public and sharp concentrations for each sport on a daily basis. I plan to do this for NFL and NCAA football on Saturday’s and Sunday’s. To find out more about what these “concentrations” are all about, you can read the article… Public/Sharp Concentration – What The Hell Does It Mean?
5) Steam Reporting – These will be new for football. I have not posted these before but I have seen it to be something people love to follow. Through the years the meaning of a true steam move has gotten bastardized. Instead of it being used to describe an event where multiple books get hit at the same time by a connected group… steam moves became considered as anything that caused the line to move at multiple books at the same time. Well, often books copy the lines of other books. Pinnacle is a perfect example. Several books will use Pinnacle lines and shade up or down based on their clientele. However when Pinnacle moves the line, these copycat books, some of them large books, immediately move their lines as well. When this would happen the odds screen would light up and people would say it’s a steam move. No, it’s just Pinnacle moved their line for one reason or another and a dozen other books followed suit. The benefit of being able to see the real tickets and action that gets placed at multiple books allows me to assess if it is just a copycat line move filtering down or actually a syndicate or group hitting a number of books. When a real steam move happens, I will cover it and post to Twitter to let everyone know. These real steam moves are rare compared to all those alleged steam moves that are issued by line service providers every day, in some cases dozens and dozens. Usually in a given week of football there are 1-3 legit steam moves that start popping on Friday, Saturday and Sunday morning.
6) Weekly Newsletter – If you haven’t figured it out yet, I like to write about the sports betting markets and pretty much all gambling topics. I am not sure the form of this newsletter idea yet but I have a mailing list that many of you reading this have signed up to be on. You can sign-up using the box on the right hand side of the home page. I really don’t use my mailing list except as an emergency backup should something happen with Twitter (which I have not needed), to inform you of big changes/updates (like this article) or to let you know when I have a Robin Hood Selection. I thought why not put together a weekly newsletter to cover the games, markets, recaps, strategies, whatever for those who signed up for my mailing list. Not like 10 pages each week but just a quick couple paragraphs with information for the week ahead that I think carries value in your betting. I am also open to any content ideas for this newsletter. I am not yet sure if I will do the newsletter for certain but it is something I have wanted to do for awhile. So I am thinking that the football season would be the perfect time to put one together. I probably would include an algorithm play or something special for those that took the time to check it out each week. Again, I am certain of #1-5 above but this one is very much up in the air. I am thinking about it though.
I understand there will be tons of requests for data/information/content this football season. I do my best to provide the best content I am able and what I am allowed to disseminate from the places I am connected with. While there is plenty I am not allowed to release publicly, I think the content I am allowed to release will be more than sufficient to make it a very fun and profitable football season… just like every other season you have followed me through up to this point!
IF YOU FOLLOW ME THIS FOOTBALL SEASON PLEASE UNDERSTAND… I REPORT INFORMATION. IT IS NOT INTENDED THAT EVERY BIT OF INFORMATION, EVEN MY ALGORITHMS, IS SOMETHING I ADVISE YOU TO BET. I DO NOT ADVISE YOU ON WHAT TO BET OR WHAT NOT TO BET. I DO NOT PROVIDE ONE ON ONE BETTING ADVICE OR STRATEGY SESSIONS. I REPORT INFORMATION AND HOW YOU CHOOSE TO USE THAT INFORMATION IS ULTIMATELY UP TO YOU! HOW YOU INTERPRET THAT INFORMATION IS UP TO YOU. WHETHER YOU FADE, FOLLOW OR IGNORE IS 100% UP TO YOU. FOR EXAMPLE, BLINDLY FOLLOWING EVERY BIT OF SHARP INFORMATION I POST IS NOT A PROPER BETTING STRATEGY. AT BEST, THE INFORMATION I POST SHOULD BE PART OF YOUR OVERALL DECISION MAKING REGARDING YOUR ACTION. MY INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE THE SOLE REASON FOR PLACING A BET.
My content will evolve as the season moves along. I will debut new content ideas here and there through the season if I find something I feel is interesting or of value. Some of that content will be a hit and some won’t be. The stuff that works I will continue and the stuff that does not, well, that’ll be dropped to free up the time and space for the more popular content. Before I wrap up today I just want to say, I get a lot of emails and Direct Messages during what is a pretty quiet month of July. I can only imagine the volume I will receive during the football season ahead on a Saturday or Sunday. Especially on a Sunday night when countless people need the inevitable bailout from a bad weekend. I have actually created a page that I will direct people to depending on what they email or direct message. I have always prided myself on responding to any message I receive… either email or Direct Message. As would be expected, eventually it reaches a critical mass where it isn’t possible for one person to handle without being on Twitter and email around the clock. I love doing the stuff at The Sharp Plays but it is not something I do full-time. My primary endeavor is as a consultant for a few books and handling algorithm design and management for clients I have contracts with. So, I created the page Direct Messages & Email to describe my communication policy moving forward. I know it’s silly but I created it because I genuinely would like to respond individually to people but unfortunately I cannot. I also don’t like to just ignore people, well except the morons and trolls. Therefore I created the above page. If you message me and I send you that link, it’s nothing personal. We may have chatted in the past and while I wish I had the time, it just isn’t possible for me to respond to everyone. I will still use Direct Message and email for any Robin Hood Selection or Robin Hood Club related support but outside that, my ability to respond is limited simply given the volume on all the other topics I receive each and every day.
I am really looking forward to the football season. I love the time from September through December. Between the weekend football and then the startup of basketball and hockey plus MLB Playoffs, it really doesn’t get any better. Don’t forget bowl season either… THE BEST! Then it calms down a little in January with just the NFL playoffs and then the Super Bowl in February. Then after the Super Bowl it’s vacation time!!!! It’ll be here before we know it! Between now and then, let’s have some fun and make some money this Fall and Winter!!!!
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays