Today’s Horse Racing Action
Today’s horse racing ratings and content is below. I am laying out the ratings in a new format. A race might look something like the below…
You would read this as #1 is the top horse, #2 is the second best rating and then you see “/”. The “/” means there is at least 4 points of rating separation between the next set of horses. All horses are in order of strength. So, #4 then #5 and then #6. You will then notice another “/” which means there is four or more points of separation between the #6 and the #7. Reading it all together, the #1 is the highest rated, the #2 is the second highest rated and since there is no “/” separating #1 and #2, we know the #2 is 1-3 points, at most, behind the #1. Then the #4 is at least four points away from the #2 with the #5 being 1-3 points behind the #4 and then the #6 being 1-3 points behind the #5. Then there is at least 4 points of separation between the #6 and #7. We then have #8 being 1-3 points behind #7, #9 being 1-3 points behind #8 and finally #10 being 1-3 points behind #9. I hope this helps clarify the ratings and shows you where separation exists. In the past I just listed the horses in order but I figure it helps to know where there is decent separation among the horses for your betting. I welcome feedback!
Development of the TSP Power Ratings
The first sport I ever bet on, by myself, was horse racing. Horse racing holds a special place in my heart thanks to all the memories it brings back. When I first started betting the ponies, I of course sucked. I was only a teenager and thought betting was easy. Through many failures, I realized betting took time & effort to be successful. Back at the time, the Beyer Speed ratings were the pinnacle of horse racing analytics. If you aren’t familiar, it’s worth a Google search for “Beyer Speed Ratings” for some background. Anyway, given I was already into betting arithmetic even in high school, I bought Beyer’s book and began to put together a very rough power rating calculation. I say “rough”, because it was barely grounded in any theory. It was an attempt to grasp for straws, using a little insight from Beyer’s method, with the hope that chaos would create organization. Chaos did not, but it did set me on the path to a more evolved horse racing model. As the years went along and my education into betting analytics and modeling expanded, I began to develop an intricate calculation to assess the quality of the horses in the race and their expected finish. I don’t reveal my calculations or methods, but suffice it to say, I used the Beyer model and adjusted it. I looked at class ratings, speed calculations, pace expectations and a couple other angles (the secret sauce) to create expected order of finish probabilities. The probabilities were then used to calculate expected payoff values for each horse. The probability and value components came together in a final power rating number… the TSP Power Ratings.
TSP Power Ratings for July 14th!
Let’s cash some tickets! Thanks for sharing pics of those tickets too, love to see you cashing using the ratings!
Parx Racing (adjusted with scratches) –
My Horse Racing Wagers…
Horse match-ups will be the primary wagering for the near term. If I see an exotic I like, I will definitely post to Twitter.
Check Twitter by 12-1pm ET for today horse match-up(s). Horse match-ups are 21-7 for +12.7 units. Pizza plays from the algorithm are 14-12 for -0.8 units.
Keep using the TSP Power/Value Ratings your way, keep cashing those tickets and please share those tickets as I love to see them! Good luck today and most importantly BET SMART & HAVE FUN!!!!