In light of the Coronapocalpyse, I have gotten back into analyzing horse racing. As horse racing content has expanded I began tracking multiple horse betting angles. Since you may be betting your hard earned money on these angles, I wanted to break down what is behind them. Hopefully this will help you gauge the angles you want to bet. Here we go…
1) Highest Value Exacta of the Day: For there to be one of these plays it requires the major tracks to be running (i.e. Aqueduct, Gulfstream, Oaklawn, Fairgrounds, etc.). It also requires at least three of those major tracks to be running for that particular day. The Highest Value Exacta of the Day takes into account all the tracks running and selects the exacta with the highest combined power rating that meets a qualifying expected value rating. The value rating component prevents a position being an exacta with horses having morning line odds of 1/1, 2/1, 3/1. Obviously that combo isn’t going to have a lot of value.
2) Highest Probability Horse of the Day: Similar to the Highest Value Exacta of the Day. The Highest Probability Horse of the Day requires at least three major tracks to be running. The selection is the horse getting rated as having the highest probability of winning over all the tracks for that day. It will often be a first or second favorite in a race. However, the probability calculation should take into account that even though it is a chalk, over time the probability will outweigh the price return.
3) Highest Power Rated Horse at a track: Simply the horse at the specific track who has the highest power rating for that day. Why don’t I do this for every track? Sure, technically every track would have a highest power rating HOWEVER I also require the horse to be 3.5 power rating points ahead of the next best horse in the race it is running. So, if at Santa Anita the highest rated horse has a 58.1 but he is in a race where the next best horse has a 56.0, this is not enough separation and would be a pass for that track.
4) Exotic with the Highest Combined Power Rating at a track: Similar to the highest power rating for an individual horse, this angle takes into account the top three horses power ratings in each race and looks for the race at that track which has the highest combined score.
5) Toilet Paper Trifecta: These are just fun trifectas I put together using my horse racing algorithm. I basically use the power ratings along with the expected prices to create a trifecta. The Toilet Paper Trifecta is definitely a bet just for the fun of it!
6) Potty Paper Pick 3/4/5’s: Similar to the Toilet Paper Trifecta, these are just some fun Pick 3’s, 4’s or 5’s. Be aware that Pick 3’s and above are higher risk wagers, similar to parlays in sports.
7) Daily Double Ply: Similar to the Potty Paper Pick 3’s, these are wagers where you select the winners of two consecutive races.
8) Sharp Money Horse Bets: I expect these to be rare but if I see sharp money betting a horse heavily offshore, I will report it on Twitter!
Records below are current as of 8:30am ET on 8/4
|Content Type – Thoroughbred Horses ONLY||WINS||LOSSES||PCT||NET PROFIT||ROI|
|Highest Power Rated Exacta of the Day||3||0||100.0%||+$56.20||201%|
|Highest Probability Horse of the Day||2||2||50.0%||+$1.20||30%|
|Highest Power Rated Horse at a track||12||12||50.0%||-$0.40||0%|
|Exotic with the Highest Combined Power Rating at a track||1||2||25.0%||+$5.20||12%|
|Toilet Paper Trifecta (Total Risk $62)||1||7||12.5%||-$57.90||0%|
|Potty Paper Pick 3 (Total Risk $852)||15||55||21.4%||-$54.30||0%|
|Pick 4 (Total Risk $172.50)||2||7||22.2%||+$59.25||34%|
|Pick 5 (Total Risk $50)||1||1||50.0%||+$505.50||1003%|
|Daily Double Ply (Total Risk $50)||2||5||28.6%||+$20.40||53%|
|Sharp Money Horse Bets||1||0||100.0%||+$14.60||730%|