Keep It Real – Reasonable Expectations for Gamblers

Just in time for football I thought it might be a good idea to have a little reality check. Many novice and even veteran gamblers have no idea about gambling realities. Years of being drilled in the face from scammers and boiler room touts who scream how they have never lost a week, never lost a month, how they are hitting 65% the past 5 years and so on create disillusionment. In the short term of a few weeks, a few months or maybe even a season/year there are outliers. There are gamblers who in these short term time frames are able to achieve well above average results. In all my years of experience however it is beyond rare to see someone do it HONESTLY over the long term of multiple years. The problem is that unknowing gamblers see these crazy stats being touted by professional marketers (I won’t use the word “handicappers”) when they first get into betting. It is then tough to deprogram themselves from the belief that these types of results are actually achievable long term. The dreams of gambling riches push away the critical thinking and logic for most gamblers. Impressionable gamblers then latch on to these dreams of consistent 65%+ wins and the idea of “sure things”. The idea of a “sure thing” is the easiest type of play to sell a gambler because every gambler wants to believe such a thing exists. It doesn’t but if I sell you a play I label as a “sure thing” and it wins, I have you hooked on the dream! Gamblers never want to let the dream go and unfortunately it makes them bad gamblers as they chase it. Instead of gambler’s measurements and calculations based on gambling reality, they are basing it on gambling fantasy that the dirt bags of the business sell them. These gamblers then hold on to the perception that if you don’t hit 60% or better all the time, you are no good. Missing out that if you “just” hit 57% long term, even with a modest bankroll, you could be a professional bettor with a VERY HEALTHY income!

I won’t get into my background because you can read that elsewhere on this website. Suffice it to say, I have seen a lot in this industry. I have been in the business over 22 years and in that time I have had access to data from millions of betting tickets, hundreds of thousands of bettors and countless dollars in total action. Of all that data and all those experiences, the best winning percentage I saw a bettor achieve, over a minimum 1000 wagers was 62.7%. The next best was 60.4% across at least 1000 wagers. Everyone else was below 60%. Sure, the bettors I just pointed out might have won 72% for a stretch or had some incredibly hot runs. But when looking across all their action over an extended period of time, hundreds of thousands of people, the very best hit 62.7%. The next best was a distant second in percentage terms at 60.4%. Everyone else was in the 50’s or below.

Nowadays everyone wants to know where they stand on the socioeconomic scale. Am I in the Top 1%, 2%, 5%, top 10%, etc.??? How about looking at where you stand as a gambler. Using years of data and basing these stats just on performance of point spread selections over a minimum 1000 wagers logged, here are the win percentages you need to achieve to fit into the top 1%, 2%, 5%, and 10% of gamblers worldwide. The win percentages probably won’t be what you would expect based on being tainted by the false claims of the scammers out there. However below is reality…

Top 1% of gamblers hit 58.0% or better.

Top 2% of gamblers hit 56.5% or better.

Top 5% of gamblers hit 53.1% or better.

Top 10% of gamblers hit 50.3% or better…. which seeing as you need to hit 52.4% to be profitable on -110 point spread bets, yes, just being in the top 10% of bettors is not automatically winning you money.

Looking at the above I can confirm that your math is not failing you either that roughly 95% of sports bettors are long term losers. It’s why bookies and bookmakers truly do have all the money! So, when you enter this upcoming football season, do so with the proper goals in mind. Will there be handicappers that have a great year this year and hit over 60% or more. Of course. However those services usually do not repeat that level of performance on a consistent basis. Instead of trying to catch that lightning in a bottle every season… work to develop a good strategy that can hit 53% or better year in and year out. At only 53% you will have a lot of fun and make a nice ROI in the process!

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays