The Little John Protocol –

If you have followed me for any length of time you’ve probably heard me discuss my plans for a multi-faceted algorithm. I am calling this algorithm, the Little John Protocol (Robin Hood’s sidekick was “Little John”). The L.J.P. runs multiple algorithms which I’ve created and that apply to the active sports for that particular day. The L.J.P. would then take those sides and totals which show value in my algorithms and analyze them in conjunction with The Sharp Plays Index. The L.J.P. would use The Sharp Plays Index to dictate the level of value needed to be achieved for a selection. If the Index is low, it would require a high qualifying value. If the Index is high, the qualifying value threshold would be lower. At this point the wagers that showed value in the algorithms and made it through the Index value assessment now move to the final step. The last and final step would be to take those filtered down wagers and assess them against sharp betting going on in the markets. Wagers that make it all the way through the three step assessment/filtering process would qualify as a play and be given a score of 1 to 5, with 5 being the best score. The Little John Protocol, while sounding like the title of a Mission Impossible movie, is something I am not aware that anyone has attempted to do in one calculation. Like any experiment, it could be a rousing success or an epic failure. You never know until you try. As Teddy Roosevelt said…

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”

The Little John Protocol will score wagers on a 1-5 scale. These are not units but rather what I expect to be a strength scale. In the testing phase, I believe anything below a 3 will be a no bet. Obviously, this can change as I build a larger data set in real-time testing. Also, I added a feature to the LJP of “U” and “D” appearing after the score. The “U” means the current score has moved UP from the previous score (not the opening score, just the previous score). The “D” means the current score has moved DOWN from the previous score.


PERFORMANCE –

All plays are tracked as 1 unit in the table for standardization in review. The records below are for plays which appear either publicly on Twitter or privately in any paid content available.

Updated 9:15am ET on 2/25

Quality Level Score Frequency* Win Loss Win Pct. Units +/-
5 <1% 6 1 85.7% +4.9
4 6% 56 37 60.2% +15.8
3 10% 81 63 56.3% +12.8
2 33% 60 42 58.8% +14.7
1 50% 21 18 53.8% +1.5

Score Frequency is showing the percentage of games where ONE TEAM in the game achieves the score listed. For example, in 6% of games in a given day, there is a team in the game with a score of 4. So, 100% of games will have a team with a score 1-5 meaning 100% of games will also have a team with a score of 0… since only one team in a game can have a positive score.