Little John Protocol

 

The Little John Protocol –

If you have followed me for any length of time you’ve probably heard me discuss my plans for a multi-faceted algorithm. I am calling this algorithm, the Little John Protocol (Robin Hood’s sidekick was “Little John”). The L.J.P. runs multiple algorithms that I’ve created and which apply to the active sports for that particular day. The L.J.P. then takes those sides and totals which show value in my algorithms and analyzes them in conjunction with The Sharp Plays Index. The L.J.P. uses The Sharp Plays Index to dictate the level of value needed to be achieved for a qualified selection. If the Index is low, it would require a high qualifying value. If the Index is high, the qualifying value threshold would be lower. At this point the wagers that showed value in the algorithms and made it through the Index value assessment now move to the final step. The final step would be to take those filtered down wagers and assess them against sharp betting going on in the markets. Wagers that make it all the way through the three step assessment/filtering process would qualify as a play and be given an LJP Score of 1 to 5, with 5 being the best score. These LJP Scores are not units, but what I expect to be a value scale. If there is no material value for a wager, both sides of a wager can have an LJP Score of “0”. However, if one side of a wager has a positive LJP Score (1-5), the other side MUST be “0”. You cannot have two positive LJP Scores (1-5) on both sides of the same wager (i.e. if the OVER has an LJP Score of 1 thru 5, the UNDER MUST be 0). The Little John Protocol, while sounding like the title of a Mission Impossible movie, is something I am not aware that anyone has attempted to do in one calculation. Like any experiment I undertake, it could be a rousing success or an epic failure. You never know until you try. As Teddy Roosevelt said…

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”

Since launching the LJP I have added a feature of “U” and “D” appearing after the score. The “U” means the current score has moved UP from the previous score (not the opening score, just the previous score). The “D” means the current score has moved DOWN from the previous score.

Betting Angles –

I expect the LJP will continue to provide wagering angles, beyond just using the closing LJP Scores themselves. I expect new angles to be uncovered as time goes along and as the data sample increases. However, below is a list of angles that have currently been identified and tracked. In the months ahead I will be auditing all the records and providing a full analysis of these angles since the LJP launched back in December. Stay tuned for that report sometime in Summer 2020! In the mean time, here are some of the identified angles from the LJP…

The Wild Moves – The most widely covered angle is the “Wild LJP Move”, which has shown to be quite strong. A “Wild LJP Move” is basically an indication of aggressive sharp buying and/or letting you know of a head fake by sharps in the markets… two angles that are always strong to follow. There are many variations of LJP Wild Moves. For something to be considered an LJP Wild Move, you look for a wager to move five LJP points or more over the course of the day, with the positive LJP Score switching sides in the process. A Wild LJP Move would look something like this… Team A opens as an LJP 2 and by the start of the event, Team B is now an LJP 3. Betting on Team B has shown to be a profitable angle in these situations.

Late Moves – Similar to the “Wild LJP Move” is the Late LJP Move. Ever since the days when horse racing dominated the betting markets, there has been a saying to follow the late money. The LJP Scores help to visually show where that late money is going. Is the LJP Score dropping as we approach the time of the event? If so, it is an indication that late sharp money is backing the other side. Is the LJP Score increasing as we approach the time of the event? If so, it is an indication that the late sharp money is backing the current side. Some examples of Late LJP Moves would be; when an LJP Score moves 2 points or more within the final five minutes to the event or when an LJP 3,4,5 moves down to a 1 or flips to the other side within the 30 minutes prior to the event. Even, for example, just the LJP Score dropping from a 2 to a 1 or a 3 to a 2 before an event is illustrating some sharp money coming in on the other side. These examples are visual illustrations, using LJP Scores, of a shift (small or dramatic) in sharp action in the market, close to the start of the event (when limits are at their highest)… always good to know before betting!

Top LJP Score of the Day – When there are a lot of sports going on, this angle has shown to be quite strong. The reason is that the Top LJP Score of the Day is essentially the sharpest, highest value bet across all sports going on. For a play to achieve that high level to be the Top LJP Score of the Day, it should be a quality selection. The Top LJP Score of the Day works best when you have 25+ betting events in a given day.

Be aware, just because these betting angles have shown positive performance does not mean you should bet every single one of them, every time they appear. Sometimes, seeing one of the angles going on is a good reason to just pass the event. Maybe you like Team A. Team A currently has an LJP Score of 2. About 10 minutes before the start of the match, Team A drops to a 1. Team A still has a positive LJP Score, but maybe you don’t like the idea of betting against the small late money that came in on Team B. In such a situation, perhaps you take a pass. So, while people are often action hungry to bet every angle, sometimes the best thing an LJP Score helps you do is to decide to pass on a bet. Passing is not winning, but passing is better than losing!

The key point is with these different angles is that the LJP is more than just a selection algorithm using the LJP Score itself. The LJP is a means to view the action in the markets which is visually illustrated by the LJP Scores. Most of you can’t look into what’s really going on in the betting markets. The goal of the LJP is to give you that insider’s view, within the action at two global books, that you can’t get from ticket and money percentages! I expect as we see the LJP in action and over more and more events, many additional wagering strategies will be developed from it! As those angles develop, I will add them to this page!


LJP Performance by Score –

All plays are tracked as 1 unit in the table for standardization in review. The records below are for plays which appear either publicly on Twitter or privately in any paid content available. If a selection was not posted for others to see, it is not included in the tracking below.

Records are current as of 9:25am ET on 7/14

Top LJP Play of the Day (Twitter & March Madness Bonanza) 5-1 for +3.9 units
Wild LJP Move of the Day (Twitter) 8-5 for +2.8 units

Quality Level Score Frequency* Win Loss Win Pct. Units +/-
5 <1% 6 1 85.7% +4.9
4 6% 61 38 61.6% +19.2
3 10% 115 85 57.5% +21.1
2 18% 125 82 60.4% +38.5
1 33% 104 101 50.7% +4.2

* – Score Frequency in the table above is showing the percentage of games where one side of a wager will achieve the score listed. Roughly 67% of all wagers on any given day will have one side of the wager achieve an LJP 1-5 (the other side will then be a 0). The other roughly 33% of wagers on any given day will have a “0” on both sides of the wager. The “0” on both sides of a wager is simply signifying that there is no material sharp lean or value in the wager. Also remember, that 100% of games have at least one side of the wager with a score of 0… since only one side of a wager can have a positive score (LJP 1-5).