It’s not a long post but I finally had a chance to sit down and run through my season win total calculations for college football. I am putting it up on my website to save for future reference during the season. After running all the numbers I was able to narrow things down to what I show are the Top 3 values. I don’t go beyond the Top 3 because the value really drops off after that point and I would not consider those worthwhile plays. Works for me as I don’t like a lot of action but prefer to just target a couple teams. Below are the Top 3 values I show for the regular season NCAA win totals. I will have NFL season win totals analysis either later this week or sometime next week. The prices I quote below are from Pinnacle Sports (Pinnacle.com) as of today.
#1) West Virginia UN5 (-115) I am showing West Virginia UN5 as a top value. What a great line here as my algorithm shows the price should be UN4.5 (-118). All told it is about 63 cents of value in the number! I don’t really get into too much analysis because I put in the previous stats, player adjustments, season adjustments, schedule power ratings and more. Once that’s done I type “run” on the old Tandy Color Computer 2! I always reference my Commodore 64 but I really have to give a shout out to the Tandy Color Computer 2 as that’s where my computer programming began! LOL! So, when I typed “run” today… West Virginia was a top value!
#2) Arizona OV7 (+164) My algorithm calculates this price should be Arizona OV7 (+112). Therefore I am showing 52 cents of value in the number.
#3) Texas A&M UN7.5 (+100) My algorithm calculates this price as Texas A&M UN7.5 (-141). With that figure we are getting 41 cents of value in this number.
These prices will vary by book. If you shop around you could even get better values than what I am showing above from Pinnacle. Only a few days until the start of the season! I cannot wait!
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays