NFL Spread vs. ML Value Analysis


I posted this to Twitter but I wanted to save it to the website so people could refer back to it throughout the season. The below figures include data for over 10 years for the NFL! I’m often asked when to bet spread vs. ML for an underdog. Below shows how often dogs win outright when they cover with the point spreads listed…

92% of 1-3pt
65% of 3.5-6.5pt
53% of 7-10pt
37% of 10-14pt
10% of 14+pt

So, 92% of 1-3pt dogs who cover, win outright. Which lends itself to the fact that if you like a 1-3 point dog, there is often a better value betting the moneyline than the spread. You will win less tickets but the tickets you do cash will pay off at positive juice and make up for the difference!

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays