I like to wait until we are right upon the start of the season to run the NFL win totals algorithm. It allows me to have the most information possible and adjust within the algorithm for player losses, acquisitions, cuts, etc. I was able to put everything together yesterday and then sit down and run the algorithm this morning. I am putting this up as an article on my website to save for future reference during the season. After running all the numbers I was able to narrow things down to what I show are the Top 5 values for the regular season NFL win totals. The prices I quote below are from Bookmaker/CRIS (Bookmaker.com or CRIS.com) and were locked in as of 8am ET this morning.
#1) Colts OV7.5 (-120) I am showing this as the top value probably because of the public overreaction to Luck retiring. As with any major announcement like that, the market usually over-compensates on big news. It’s sort of like the stock market. When there is bad news the market has an immediate and strong reaction on the news and then inevitably the over-reaction brings in the buyers (or sellers in the case of a big up move). I think that’s the case here. The over-reaction has given us a GREAT line! My algorithm is calculating the proper total to be OV8.5 (-140).
#2) Detroit OV6.5 (-150) My algorithm calculates this price should be Detroit OV7 (-132).
#3) Jacksonville UN8 (-117) My algorithm calculates this price should be Jacksonville UN7.5 (-136)
#3) Miami OV4.5 (+112) My algorithm calculates this price should be Miami OV5 (-121)
#3) Buffalo OV7 (-148) My algorithm calculates this price should be Buffalo OV7.5 (-104)
These prices will vary by book. If you shop around you could even get better values than what I am showing above from Bookmaker/CRIS. The season begins TOMORROW!! Get ready!
ADDED (9/5/19): After posting this article I was asked about values for teams to win the Super Bowl. I had time to run them and I am showing value on Pittsburgh & Seattle. I am showing Pittsburgh as having a 14-1 chance to win the Super Bowl but I am seeing odds of 20-1 or better out there. I am showing Seattle as having a 16-1 chance to win the Super Bowl but I am showing odds of 18-1 or better out there. Those are the top two plays that have value and reasonable chances to win the Super Bowl.
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays