I get asked some great questions all the time and I thought I would compile them every so often and answer them. The website allows me a forum to respond in more detail then I am able on Twitter. Here’s some questions recently…
Q: Can you, will you, break down and separate “Known” bettors even further?
A: Can I, yes. Will I, probably not for the stuff I post to Twitter. The reason is two fold. First it takes time to run the scan on the client and break down their performance. Not a lot of time but it adds time to things. Second, I know if I do it once I will set a precedent that any time I post “known” bettor information I will receive an onslaught of responses asking for the in-depth information. Of course I can ignore them but it just sets a bad precedent. If you would like this information, I do provide it when I release a Robin Hood selection based on information and not my algorithms. It’s a way to make special the “known” bettor information I offer as a thank you for taking part in the Robin Hood selection. Otherwise I probably won’t be doing it on a regular basis on Twitter.
Q: Why don’t you do a service?
A: The question keeps coming up so I’ll try to address it in detail. My favorite part of the semi-retirement I enjoy is my freedom! I love the ability to make my own schedule and not worry about some obligation I have to do. Running a service is a big obligation and commitment (at least that’s how I would treat it) to those people who would be my clients. I don’t want to feel tied down each day because I have to put together selections for a given day or I have to handle support for customers. If someone is paying me for anything, I have now taken on an obligation to them. I don’t want obligations. With what I do on Twitter, nobody is paying me. I can post when I want or not if I am too busy that day, week, month. I can run through The Sharp Plays email or other messages people send only once a day when I want to do it. Doing what I do, in the way I do it on Twitter and at my website allows me to retain every bit of freedom I currently have in my life. I have not taken on any new obligations by doing this website or Twitter. I would not trade freedom to make $500 or whatever per customer to run a service. It isn’t worth it. It is why I can guarantee you, I will never run a daily service of any kind. Sorry!
Q: Everyone has an angle, what’s yours?
A: Doing what I do on Twitter and this website is a lot of fun for me. The conversations that develop from the things I post on Twitter are educational and entertaining. Laughing with all of you about Mr. Poison for example is quite enjoyable. It’s not like what I do at this website or on Twitter is a full-time job. It’s the furthest thing possible from a full-time job. As I have said, I am not old enough to be napping and reading books all day in my retirement. I am the type of person who needs a project. The Sharp Plays website and Twitter is one such little project. When I am not doing things on Twitter, I screw around with my algorithm ideas and designs. I am like Indiana Jones in search of the Algorithm of the Covenant. I am always trying to find a better formula or a new technique. I love using mathematics to solve life’s little mysteries. The project I am doing right now in developing an algorithm to assess the 1st Inning Yes/No Run Scored prop has come about 100% because of my interactions on Twitter. It’s new ideas like the run prop algorithm that come from my interactions here and Twitter. The Sharp Plays Betting Index is another idea I came upon because of my Twitter interaction.
Q: Why don’t you sell more Robin Hood information?
A: First, I need to dedicate time to handle support for the Robin Hood selections. Whenever I am selling one I need to make sure I will be available all that day for any questions, emails, problems, etc. I can’t just throw it up on the website and then be off at an event. When it comes to gratuities I am constantly offered, I never really expected people to find my information as interesting and helpful as they do. I knew they would but never to the extent. I am flattered by the response frankly. I prefer to provide you something in exchange for your support. I know people say that what I provide on Twitter is why they want to provide gratuities and therefore I’m already providing you something. I thought of the Robin Hood selection as an option for people to show their appreciation for everything I post. At the same time and in return I can provide you something special for that support! You provide a payment to support things which are important to me and I provide you a guaranteed 1 unit of profit either initially on the Robin Hood Selection or through the Robin Hood Club. The 1 unit of profit is then paid to you by your book and you can use that money to support things important to you too!
Q: Why should I not just blindly follow the “known” bettor information that you post?
A: I can say that 98% of casual bettors have no grasp on betting realities. No offense. Most casual bettors think a sharp player must hit 60-65% of their bets to be extremely profitable. It is such a statement that is the why the books make a ton of money. It’s because people are chasing a dream. No sharp bettor hits 60%+ on their plays over the long term. For short stretches like a few weeks or a month or two, absolutely. The best sharps I have ever witnessed hit approx. 58% long term. At 58% though, your edge against the house (assuming 10% vig) is 10.7%. If we are talking reduced juice this 10.7% only increases! What that means is for every dollar you put into action, you get 10.7 cents back. What this further means is if you are a 58% long term sharp, betting $1000 per game, over 200 games or $200,000 in action then you are expected to get a return of $21,456. That is AMAZING! You have a 10.7% edge against the house and you are printing money! What do these figures look like for win percentages of 55%, 56%, 57%? Here you go…
55% = 5.0% means $200K in action returns $10.0K
56% = 6.9% means $200K in action returns $13.8K
57% = 8.8% means $200K in action returns $17.6K
Back to the point of this question. Most casual gamblers have no clue how to manage their bankrolls! I’ll give you an example…for the past 4-5 weeks the “known” bettor action I posted on Twitter has been WHITE HOT! It was an excellent run which finished on March 17th with a great Sunday performance. From Monday the 18th through yesterday (the 22nd), “known” bettor action that I posted has had 11 wins and 13 losses. Not exactly an awful run however it is a losing run. Despite only two net losses in this five day period, there are followers I see on Twitter who are beside themselves at the losses. Beside themselves at an 11-13 record after “known” bettor action did print money from February through to March 17th. It is for this reason that even when a casual gambler gets good information, they don’t use it properly. Even if you didn’t experience the past 4-5 week white hot run but you just started following on Monday the 18th, an 11-13 record should not have you on the verge of bankruptcy. If it does, you have SEVERE bankroll management issues!!! I don’t mean that as a joke either. If following an 11-13 record has destroyed you, there is little even the sharpest bettor can do to help you. It is also why I advise those of you on Twitter to use the “known” bettor and other information on Twitter as part of your handicapping…not as a supplement to it. Every gambler can handle a winning streak, few gamblers can handle a losing streak. The losing streak and your management of it is what separates a sharp bettor from a casual bettor. Even those 58% sharp bettors I talk about, the triple sharps, will have runs where they hit only 20,30,40% of their bets. The sharps just know how to manage it. They know how to maximize their hot runs and minimize damage when they will undoubtedly run cold. You want to become a sharp? The first key is learning to bet disciplined and to manage your bankroll. The next key is to understand that no matter how good you are, you are going to have your share of bad/cold runs too. It’s just that sharps realize their hot streaks will always be longer and better than what they give back during the cold runs.
I have a bunch of other questions which will require longer responses. I am going to save those questions for during the week when the NCAA Tournament action calms down. If you have questions please submit them to me on Twitter or through the Contact page on the website. I would love to hear them!