THIS ALGORITHM IS IN A BETA TEST STAGE – DETAILS & BACKGROUND BELOW CHART
Daily Market Commentary – The Index declined by 3 points yesterday. The sharp/value side saw some success in soccer however in NFL preseason, the public won again. The last sport receiving a large portion of the action yesterday was MLB. Typically, MLB has been very strong on Sundays. Yesterday the sharp/value side had its moments but the public side ended up going 10-4 on sides but lost slightly on lower action totals. Overall in MLB it was a net public gain. When combined with the public success in NFL and mixed results in other sports, the Index drops by 3 points. The momentum, which looked to be waning for the public yesterday, has been reacquired by the public. The read on the Index is with it on the decline and below the 5 day moving average, you would want to play the sharp/value side cautiously and avoid fading the public. **Updated 8/19/19** Don’t forget to check the Algorithms page for today’s plays and information.
Above is a chart on the output of an algorithm I have been working on. I wanted to post it so everyone could follow along and provide any thoughts/comments. What you see above is an algorithm I designed which takes into account short term public performance, sharp performance and uses some predictive analysis based on past betting cycles to compute an index number to illustrate the current betting environment. A betting environment above the 5 day moving average shows value exists in the market and sharps are in control…public will struggle. A betting environment below the 5 day moving average shows value is lacking in the market and the public is in control…sharps will struggle. Essentially the chart calculates market value. When there is no market value, the public usually wins. When there is market value the sharps are going to perform well because they target the value that exists. My goal is to use this to essentially assess if sharps should be followed or if sharp/value action should be a pass/bet lightly. The higher the number, the stronger the sharps. The lower the index, the stronger the public. If the blue index line is below the black moving average, public has the momentum and will be trending. If the blue index line is above the moving average, the sharps have momentum and are trending.
I know the natural inclination is how the hell could you use financial market technical analysis tools to predict whether the sharps or public are going on a run. It’s actually not that difficult. In financial technical analysis you use a stock’s price and calculations off price movements to calculate things like RSI, MACD, etc. in an effort to see where the stock is going. Technically, performance of the public or sharps as a whole can be tracked similarly and then analyzing that to show momentum doesn’t become that hard. It’s complicated but there’s no magic involved. After years of watching the ebb and flow of sharps and public in this business you start to see correlations. I kept tracking those correlations and then finally developed a tool to map those movements with The Sharp Plays Index. Again, it is VERY early in the testing process and building a sample size but I must say, I am pleased with the results and predictive information the index has provided thus far!
While I use a 0-100 scale, it should not be read as current win percentages. The 0-100 is a scale that best fit the calculation I created for current performances and trends of each betting group. The TSP-I then uses a calculation of the public’s performance and the sharp’s performance, weighted across all sports bet on a given day, to visually illustrate the current overall betting market.