THIS ALGORITHM IS IN A BETA TEST STAGE – DETAILS & BACKGROUND BELOW CHART
Daily Market Commentary – The Index dropped again yesterday. The highest public concentration on Boston lost and the highest sharp concentration on the LA Angels won. Based on that you would think the Index would increase. However other than those two games going in favor of an increase in the Index, little else did. The Yankees game was huge for the public and against the sharps. The public was all over the Yankees on the moneyline and the run line plus they were heavy on OVER the total. With tennis and UEFA Qualifiers getting light action right now, the bulk of the Index calculation relies on the market volumes in MLB. July is a tough month for betting analysis because it is all about MLB. It is the one month of the year with the least amount of action, especially US sports. Every other month has multiple US sports getting action which helps provide betting opportunities. The limited offerings in July combined with a very negative value/public betting environment is not making it a fun month for sharp action. **Updated 7/17/19** Don’t forget to visit the Home page for “Today’s Notes” or the Algorithms page for today’s plays and information.
Above is a chart on the output of an algorithm I have been working on. I wanted to post it so everyone could follow along and provide any thoughts/comments. What you see above is an algorithm I designed which takes into account short term public performance, sharp performance and uses some predictive analysis based on past betting cycles to compute an index number to illustrate the current betting environment. A betting environment above the 5 day moving average shows value exists in the market and sharps are in control…public will struggle. A betting environment below the 5 day moving average shows value is lacking in the market and the public is in control…sharps will struggle. Essentially the chart calculates market value. When there is no market value, the public usually wins. When there is market value the sharps are going to perform well because they target the value that exists. My goal is to use this to essentially assess if sharps should be followed or if sharp/value action should be a pass/bet lightly. The higher the number, the stronger the sharps. The lower the index, the stronger the public. If the blue index line is below the black moving average, public has the momentum and will be trending. If the blue index line is above the moving average, the sharps have momentum and are trending.
I know the natural inclination is how the hell could you use financial market technical analysis tools to predict whether the sharps or public are going on a run. It’s actually not that difficult. In financial technical analysis you use a stock’s price and calculations off price movements to calculate things like RSI, MACD, etc. in an effort to see where the stock is going. Technically, performance of the public or sharps as a whole can be tracked similarly and then analyzing that to show momentum doesn’t become that hard. It’s complicated but there’s no magic involved. After years of watching the ebb and flow of sharps and public in this business you start to see correlations. I kept tracking those correlations and then finally developed a tool to map those movements with The Sharp Plays Index. Again, it is VERY early in the testing process and building a sample size but I must say, I am pleased with the results and predictive information the index has provided thus far!
While I use a 0-100 scale, it should not be read as current win percentages. The 0-100 is a scale that best fit the calculation I created for current performances and trends of each betting group. The TSP-I then uses a calculation of the public’s performance and the sharp’s performance, weighted across all sports bet on a given day, to visually illustrate the current overall betting market.