The Sharp Plays Newsletter – Week #10

Recap & Week Ahead –  It was a good overall weekend for the content! Highlights included another Premium Play winner to move those to 7-0 since they were created! It is amazing and scary to think that the whole play hinged on Georgia going for and making a 2 point conversion but hey, it worked out! Another highlight was the win for the horse racing algorithm as the algorithm selections cashed the exacta and the trifecta for the Breeders Cup Classic!! Also, the NFL algorithm got another win to move to 7-3 for 70% on the season! In case you missed it on Twitter, below were the breakdowns of the action from the weekend. I also added the performance of the newsletter content to the breakdowns below. I always forget to put that in but it was a good 3-1 week for the newsletter information! Also, don’t forget to check the main page of the website (TheSharpPlays.com or TheSharpPlays.net) each morning to view the updated content tracking tables. I only do these daily breakdowns on Twitter for the weekend due to the volume of content posted on Saturday and Sunday…

SUNDAY
Robin Hood Club +0.29 units
NFL Spread v2.0 Algorithm 1-0 (7-3 on the season)
Early Sharp Buy 1-0
Mr. Poison Fade 1-0
Late Sharp Money Totals 0-1
First Quarter Algorithm 1-2
Little John -3.3 units (Seattle TD in OT was the killer)

SATURDAY
Premium Play 1-0 (now 7-0)
Robin Hood Club +0.62 units
Horse Racing Algo 100% ROI Exacta 328% ROI Trifecta
Little John +2.0 units
NCAAF Totals Algo 1-0
Early Algorithm Play (newsletter) 1-0
My Handicapping (newsletter) 1-0
Late Sharp Money Totals 3-4
NCAAF Spread Algo 0-1
Late Sharp Money Sides 0-1
UFC Algo 0-1
Early Sharp Buy 0-1

The Premium Plays continue their run and move to 7-0 after winning a tight one on Georgia this past Saturday. I have said it every week and I will say it again this week! Please remember… anytime something is hot it is always important to remember that these Premium Plays will not hit 100% or 90%, 80%, 70% or probably even 60% lifetime. It would be nice but that’s not how things work in sports gambling. So, when betting on Premium Plays, like any play, be sure to bet intelligently and with the long-term in mind. Do not bet expecting Premium Plays will go 20-0, 19-1, 17-3 over the next 20 plays. Sure they could but the chances are very low. Instead, bet as though we expect a 12-8 record, at best, over the next 20 plays and you never know when those 8 will occur! If you do that, these will be a very enjoyable and profitable endeavor! I’m going to do a Premium Play again for this Saturday’s College Football! As I do every Tuesday, the PRE-ORDER is now open! So, if you would like to pre-order this week’s NCAAF Premium Play or to get more details on Premium Plays, you can do so at TheSharpPlays.net/premium/. Thank you for the support and remember, bet smart! Locks and “sure things” do not exist… don’t bet like they do!

For the week ahead, we begin the run of football every day from now through to November 27th! On top of that we also get the beginning of college basketball. As I said last week, you can expect the typical coverage of college basketball that you see for the other major sports (algorithms, concentrations, sharp money, Late Sharp Money, etc.). I have selected a totals algorithm to cover college basketball on a regular basis. NCAABB Totals Algorithm v3.0 is an active algorithm, not in testing, so it will be valid for play right out of the gate this season! Be ready to rock and roll!

Algorithms – On the positive side, all three algorithms covering football are positive for the season. On the negative side, the NCAAF Spread Algorithm lost this past Saturday. It was a 2-1 weekend for the football algorithms combined as the NFL Spread algorithm won with the Chargers and the NCAAF Totals Algorithm got the win with Akron UNDER. The NCAAF Spread Algorithm lost with Georgia Tech. Frustrating loss as they had multiple opportunities to easily cover that game. In other algorithm news, the Grand Salami algorithm continues its run in the NHL. I hope you enjoy the fun of the Grand Salami wager! It’s very exciting as we already experienced as some days it is down to the final game. Other days it could be the empty netter, or lack thereof, in the final game that keeps it UNDER or sends it OVER!

Early Sharp Buys (7-7 YTD) –  The consistency continues as this section has ANOTHER 1-1 week. The NCAAF sharp buy on Kansas lost but the NFL sharp buy on Baltimore got the win. For the current week, the early sharp buy in the NCAAF is on Georgia Tech +15 over Virginia. I guess I could see that because they played Pitt a lot better than the score showed. The early sharp buy in the NFL is on Pittsburgh +3.5 over the LA Rams. Rams have looked very bad and Pittsburgh is weird, they can play great or awful even without Big Ben. Guess the sharps expect greatness this week. Those are the two games getting the most concentrated sharp buys at this point in the week.

Early Algorithm Look (1-0 YTD) –  A win last week on Memphis to debut this new section of the newsletter. For the current week, the algorithm I use to check the numbers early in the week is showing the top value as UTSA +4.5 over Old Dominion. Let’s get this to 2-0 on the year and for it to become a nice new feature to the weekly newsletter!

My Handicapping (BEWARE) –  I won with Army to bring my handicapping in this section to 3-6 on the year! Yipee!!! I am over 30% winners! LOL! Don’t say I didn’t tell you I was a bad handicapper! I would like to get to 4-6 this week. To achieve this lofty goal of 40% winners here, I am going to go with Oakland +1. The Chargers beat a hungover Green Bay team in LA this past week. I think the Chargers have talent but they did not play the best Green Bay team last week. The result of that game is seriously inflating the perceived value in the Chargers. Oakland on the other hand needed a defensive stand with seconds remaining to avoid OT. Oakland is a team that continues to surprise and despite the surprises they still don’t get any credit. They can move the ball and the they have a defense that is good enough to actually hold other teams and get the win. It was not an easy task against Stafford but that should have them prepared for a similar style of offense this week in the Chargers. I am going with Oakland +1 over LAC!

My Two Cents –   For this week, my two cents is about sharp action/money/bettors. When I post what the “sharps” are betting or where the “sharp” money is going, if those plays then lose I see messages (which crack me up) that say “these sharps are awful”. LOL! Guess what, sharps are not much better than you, John Q Public handicapper. People don’t seem to realize how fine the line is between public and sharp bettor. I spoke about this before but there have been a number of people who have joined the following since the start of the football season. So, let me briefly recap the topic here. Everyone (most people) know that a sharp bettor is typically someone who hits 55-56% of their point spread bets. People who achieve that win percentage can make a great deal of money in sports betting thanks to their edge. Someone who hits 56% has a 6.9% edge (based on -110 lines, gets better with -105 and -108 vig) against the book. What does that 6.9% edge mean? It means for every $100 they put into action (risk) they are expected to return $6.90 of profit in the long run. It doesn’t sound like a lot but it is huge when you start to see how the action builds up! Someone who bets 100 games a month (roughly 3 per day) at $1100 (to win $1000) on each game is putting $110K in action. Over those 100 games they can expect a profit of $7,590 (100 games X $1100 = $110K in action/risk X 0.069 = $7,590)! If that bettor wagers $3300 per play, their monthly income from sports betting becomes $22,770! So, that’s why sharps bettors don’t need to hit 60 or 65%, which is unattainable anyway over the long term. If they can hit 56% and bet as much as possible on their games, they can turn quite a healthy profit. When you realize many sharps are putting $10K or $20K+ on their games, now you have a nice chunk of money from sports betting! How much? The same bettor risking $22K per game is turning a profit of $151,800 per month!

Back to the point though, the difference between a 50% bettor (the average public bettor) and a 56% bettor is 6 wins every 100 bets. When you think about it, 6 games of difference is not that much especially when taken over 100 total bets. Only SIX WINS per 100 bets is what separates John Q Public from being one of the sharpest bettors in the casino. So sharps don’t win a lot more percentage-wise than you. However that little bit can really make a difference! Those 6 little games every 100 bets is the difference between making $151,800 per month and losing your mortgage and retirement betting sports. Amazing how fine the line is for professional betting!

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays