The Sharp Plays Newsletter – Week #11

Recap & Week Ahead –  What an exciting week it was! There was a riot in the Robin Hood Club on Saturday after a day going 0-7 and -4.4 units! It was total anarchy as Robin Hood Club members set fires, smashed windows and spread feces all over the walls using it to repeatedly write “Premium Plays should be in here!!!!”. Thankfully, the Robin Hood Club’s crack maintenance staff got everything cleaned, fixed and back in order to open for Sunday morning. On Sunday the Robin Hood Club moved to all 1 unit plays and got a chance to flex on everyone as the Club bounced right back with a PERFECT 7-0-1 Sunday (8-0 if you bought Cleveland down to -2.5) for +6.58 units! Sunday’s return completely erased the loss from Saturday and in one day closed the Club! The Robin Hood Club session lasted 65 total days and by the time it closed had delivered on a +2.9 unit Profit Promise that accrued by achieving +3.07 units of profit! Not bad for a $25 minimum purchase. I will say it every time, the Robin Hood Club gets a lot of critics, which I LOVE, since I see none of those critics stepping up to offer a similar guarantee. The Robin Hood Club and the Profit Promise is something I am happy to say is not equaled anywhere. A $25 minimum purchase gets you a guaranteed 1 unit of profit. If the Robin Hood Selection loses then the Robin Hood Club opens to provide daily selections to achieve the guarantee. A guarantee which increases every 12 days by 0.30 units and with selections graded using the WORST LINE AVAILABLE among the major books. Which usually means most members actually exceed the Profit Promise delivered by getting better numbers than the plays are graded on! With the result on Sunday, the Robin Hood Selections are now 18 for 18 LIFETIME in achieving the Profit Promise!

The recent Robin Hood Club session was quite a ride for everyone involved. I know there is a ton of interest in another one. I will definitely have another Robin Hood Selection available in the next 1-2 weeks! The selection will use the “Top Bettor Action” for the day. Whatever bet the top bettor is on will be the Robin Hood Selection. For anyone who doesn’t know, how it works is I release a Robin Hood Selection. If the play wins, great, everyone wins the 1 unit on the first play and that’s it. The Robin Hood Club ONLY OPENS if the Robin Hood Selection loses. So even though it is not a guarantee by any means that the Robin Hood Club would reopen, by not having a Robin Hood Selection right now I am guaranteed to continue enjoying the freedom of not having to do the Robin Hood Club updates daily. So, I would say there is a 20% chance of one this weekend but an 80% chance it will occur next weekend. Also, given that the top bettor action released in the Robin Hood Club finished 73-45 for 61.9% winners over 118 selections, there has been strong demand for a daily service with this information. I totally understand and I will discuss this more in the “My Two Cents” section below.

Below is the performance breakdowns from this past weekend. Don’t forget to also check the main page of the website (TheSharpPlays.com or TheSharpPlays.net) each morning to view the updated content tracking table. I only do these daily breakdowns on Twitter for the weekend due to the volume of content posted on Saturday and Sunday…

SUNDAY
Robin Hood Club 7-0-1 for +6.58 units
Mr. P Fade 2-0
NFL Sharp Concentration 1-0
Fade Public Concentration 1-0
Early Sharp Buy (newsletter) 1-0
Pro’s v Joe’s 1-0
Late Sharp Money NFL Sides 1-1
Spread Algorithm 0-1
LSM NCAABB 0-1
Pizza Prop 0-1

SATURDAY
Premium Play 1-0 (8-0)
Just Missed Premium Play 1-0 (2-1)
LSM Totals 2-0
Early Sharp Buy (TSP news) 1-0
Early Algo Play (TSP news) 1-0
Sharp Concentration 1-0
Mr. P Fade 1-0
Public Concentration fade 0-1
UFC algo 0-1
NCAAF algos 0-3
LSM Sides 0-2
LJ -2.4u
RHC -4.4u

The Premium Plays continue their run and move to 8-0 after winning an exciting one on Virginia Tech +2.5 outright over Wake Forest on Saturday. Yep, you know what’s coming… I have said it every week and I will say it again this week! Please remember… anytime something is hot it is always important to remember that these Premium Plays will not hit 100% or 90%, 80%, 70% or probably even 60% lifetime. It would be nice but that’s not how things work in sports gambling. So, when betting on Premium Plays, like any play, be sure to bet intelligently and with the long-term in mind. Do not bet expecting Premium Plays will go 20-0, 19-1, 17-3 over the next 20 plays. Sure they could but the chances are very low. Instead, bet as though we expect a 12-8 record, at best, over the next 20 plays and you never know when those 8 will occur! If you do that, these will be a very enjoyable and profitable endeavor!

I’m going to do a Premium Play again for this Saturday’s College Football! As I do every Tuesday, the PRE-ORDER is now open! So, if you would like to pre-order this week’s NCAAF Premium Play or to get more details on Premium Plays, you can do so at TheSharpPlays.net/premium/. Thank you for the support and remember, bet smart! Locks and “sure things” do not exist… don’t bet like they do!

For the week ahead, it’s all business as usual. We have football every day to November 27th and I will continue to cover NCAABB and the NHL from an algorithm perspective. It is a great time of year which will shortly lead us into BOWL SEASON!!!! I look forward to the football algorithms bouncing back this week as the NCAAF spread algorithm went 0-2, NCAAF totals algorithm went 0-1, NFL spread algorithm went 0-1 but the 1st Quarter algorithm did go 1-0! I expect the 1st Period algorithm in hockey to go active and official this week. Now for the look ahead to the football action coming up this week…

Early Sharp Buys (9-7 YTD) –  They did it! The Early Sharp Buy section finally had a 2-0 week! It had been 1-1 consistently week after week but that came to an end this past week with winners on Georgia Tech +15 in NCAAF and Pittsburgh +3.5 in the NFL. For the week ahead the leading Early Sharp Buy in NCAAF is West Virginia to +14 over Kansas St. I could see this game because Kansas St will be overvalued this week based on the close loss to Texas. Over in the NFL, the top Early Sharp Buy is on Washington -1 over the NY Jets. I am not sure about this one. Two rough teams but I can’t deny it is the top sharp buy right now so let’s see what happens! I am sure they know something I don’t and that’s the reason they like this one so much!

Early Algorithm Look (2-0 YTD) –  A comeback win last week on UTSA +4.5 over Old Dominion brings the record to 2-0 on this section. I think the Early Algorithm Look earned a permanent spot in the newsletter with the nice 2-0 start. It’s got to hold that spot though with continued success. The algorithm is looking for success on Michigan St +13.5 over Michigan. The algorithm calculates this line as Michigan St +10.5 and thereby gives the +13.5 qualifying value. Michigan St is ugly! As many of us know they completely blew the game against Illinois. The line is higher than it should be because of the public perception and the algorithm is spotting that overvaluation.

My Handicapping (BEWARE 4-6 YTD) –  I am hot right now! I continue on my quest to get to 55% winners or better in this section of the newsletter before New Year’s Day (final newsletter of the season is that week). Where am I going this weekfor my handicapping? I am going with Cleveland -2.5 over Pittsburgh on Thursday. The play is ugly but I think Pittsburgh is getting too much credit for beating up a VASTLY overrated Rams team. Cleveland played really well this past week and Hunt is going to make an impact now that he has a game under his belt. We still have to deal with Freddie Kitchens and his amazing play calling but I think the Browns defense will do their job and I look for Mayfield to move the offense enough to get the cover. Let’s go Brownies -2.5!

My Two Cents –   My topic this week is setting precedent. What do I mean? People have asked for the top sharp bettor information to be posted daily on Twitter and/or the website. I fully understand the desire. After seeing how strong it was in the Robin Hood Club it’s like I have the Ark of the Covenant and I am not letting anyone see it. However to assess the top bettor action properly, to ensure the quality of the information, it does take more than 15 or 20 minutes each day. The recent Robin Hood Club was quite a hassle given how long it went on and the time commitment I had to put into it each day. Last thing I want to do is to feel compelled to have to do that every single day. The 65 day run was more than enough for one stretch. I do not want to do it for a 365 day stretch.

Time is the one commodity we cannot buy. So, am I willing to trade something that is priceless for the price of running a monthly service? The answer, as it was back in March when people asked, is still a no. I said it back then that I would do a lot of things but I would never do a monthly service. Never is a strong word but it is completely perfect for this spot. It’s not about about the money. I definitely know people would pay and pay quite handsomely. For me, it’s about the time. I am lucky to be at the point where I do not have to make decisions based on money. When I say I don’t want to do a monthly service people then say well, why not just post it on the website or Twitter for free? If I am not willing to give up the time necessary for people who are willing to pay, why would I then give up the time necessary to do it for free? I have been asked by individuals if they could pay me on the side. I have declined those offers because if I am willing to do it for one person, might as well do it for everyone as a daily service since it involves the same amount of time to do properly.

I will always do whatever is necessary if the Robin Hood Club is open. I feel that is my obligation to anyone who purchases a Robin Hood Selection. It’s what makes the Robin Hood Selections/Club great, unique and something I am proud to offer. I provide the Profit Promise and being a “promise” I must deliver on it. So, I have the obligation to do the best job possible to achieve that promise. If it means spending an hour or more assessing the top bettor action across two books daily to come up with the plays for the RHC, then that’s what I must do. However when I don’t have that obligation it is quite freeing. Nothing personal, I don’t want that daily obligation. The past two days have been beyond pleasant as I ride the post Robin Hood Club high and not have to work my day around the updates! LOL!

I know that as soon as I post the top sharp consensus or the top bettor action one day on Twitter or the website, I will be inundated with messages to do it every day. Which leads me to my point on precedent. Don’t set a precedent if you don’t want to stick with it. The only way to ensure I am not inundated is to avoid setting the precedent that I am willing to take the time here or there to post top sharp bettor action or the top sharp consensus outside the Robin Hood Selection, Robin Hood Club (when necessary) or Premium Plays. For now, the top sharp bettor and top sharp bettor consensus information will be solely provided when I offer the plays above. It makes those selections special because for your support you get something I do not ordinarily put out there. For my end of it, I can then do it on my schedule versus any obligation or precedent that has been set. Regardless of those occasions, I will continue to provide the best content daily (and free) I am able AND within the time I am willing to dedicate to The Sharp Plays. As I said Sunday, I think what I do with regard to content each day with The Sharp Plays is not equaled anywhere and especially given 98% of it is free!

In closing on this topic, I clearly know the top sharp bettor information and top sharp consensus is of interest. I am trying to find a little bit of a middle ground between nothing and a monthly service. Fortunately there is a lot of room in between those two. I am tossing around ideas (which have been provided by many of you, thank you!) to offer it in small sessions or on special occasions. What I would do is open the Robin Hood Club for a weekend, an extended holiday weekend or for a week here or there when it works for me. Something like I did back in the summer. If you aren’t familiar with what I did… back in the summer I offered a Robin Hood Club session without first having a Robin Hood Selection. I just did the Club for three days. It was a brief run, it was successful and everyone seemed to enjoy it. So, that’s the leading option for the way to offer this top sharp bettor information and do it without taking on a large or long term obligation. With the holidays and bowl season coming up, I think there will be plenty of great opportunities to do it. How I envision it working is I would figure a proper price, nothing crazy, I don’t think I ever gouge with my minimum purchase prices. It would NOT come with a guarantee because I don’t want it to extend beyond the time I am willing to do it and it would operate just like the Robin Hood Club normally does (daily updates, multiple selections when warranted, etc.). Also, these small sessions would not go on if the Robin Hood Club was actively covering a Profit Promise. The special sessions would also not take away from the regular and guaranteed Robin Hood Selection offerings. Again, I love doing the Robin Hood Selections with the Profit Promise so it is important to me that the frequency of the Robin Hood Selections would not be diminished by these “Robin Hood Club Special Sessions”. Nothing is anywhere near set in stone as all this is very much in the brainstorming stage for me but just to give you a quick idea of my general thinking. I will update more in the weeks ahead. Thanks for your interest in the content!

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays