The Sharp Plays Newsletter – Week #12

Recap & Week Ahead –  It was a VERY PUBLIC WEEK! Saturday the books got murdered on Alabama and then Sunday it was the usual suspect, the Patriots. While the Patriots covering is always a negative for the books, this week was especially strong on the Pats. I mean the Patriots can’t lose two in a row right?!?! Well, bettors certainly didn’t think so and unloaded on Patriots spread, moneyline and in teasers and parlays. It didn’t stop there as books couldn’t find any money to take the Chargers. As we know, the Chiefs get the easy cover. Wire to wire bad weekend for the books and for the sharps while at the same time it was great for the public! The failure of the sharps was encapsulated on Saturday with the first Premium Play loss ever on Auburn. Tough loss too as Auburn fought back at the end and had that wide-open pass on 4th down which fell incomplete. Premium Plays moved to 8-1 (5-1 NCAAF & 3-0 NFL). Fortunately, Sunday’s Robin Hood Selection got through the public week without issue as it cashed on Buffalo -6.5 over Miami. We had a little sweat in that one as the Bills let Miami hang around longer than they should have. In the end, they closed the deal for us! Robin Hood Selections are now 19 for 19 LIFETIME in achieving the Profit Promise! Also, the win moves the top bettor action released through the Robin Hood Club and the Robin Hood Selection to 74-45 for 62.2% winners over the 119 selections since I started covering this angle.

Below is the performance breakdowns from this past weekend. Don’t forget to also check the main page of the website (TheSharpPlays.com or TheSharpPlays.net) each morning to view the updated content tracking table. I only do these daily breakdowns on Twitter for the weekend due to the volume of content posted on Saturday and Sunday…

SUNDAY
Robin Hood Selection 1-0
1st Quarter Algo 1-0
Late Sharp Money Sides 1-0
LSM Totals 1-0
Just Missed Premium Play 0-0-1
NCAABB Totals Algo 0-1 1H, 1-0 Full Game
NFL Spread Algo 0-1
Early Sharp Buy (newsletter) 0-1
Pizza Prop 0-1
Mr. P Fade 0-2

SATURDAY
NCAABB Totals Algo 2-0
Just Missed Premium Play 1-0 (4-1-1 YTD)
Early Sharp Buy 1-0 (news)
Mr. P Fade 1-0
NCAAF Totals Algo 2-1
UFC Algo 1-0
Late Sharp Money 1-1
Premium Play 0-1
NCAAF Spread Algo 0-1
NCAAF Pro v Joe 0-1
Early Algo 0-1 (news)

Well it happened! Each week I have been warning you to bet intelligently and with the understanding that the only way to stay undefeated is not to gamble! It was going to happen sometime and it did this past weekend. Premium Plays get their first loss on Auburn. On the positive side, hopefully the loss is out of the way and will make way for the next winning streak! However, it must be said to please remember… anytime something is hot it is always important to remember that these Premium Plays will not hit 90%, 80%, 70% or probably even 60% lifetime. It would be nice but that’s not how things work in sports gambling. So, when betting on Premium Plays, like any play, be sure to bet intelligently and with the long-term in mind. Do not bet expecting Premium Plays will go 19-1, 17-3 over the next 20 plays. Definitely do not bet as though you feel they are a lock or sure thing. Premium Plays are expected to be a long term +EV wager. Bet as though we expect a 12-8 record, at best, over the next 20 plays and you never know when those 8 will occur! The 8 losses could occur all at once and then you rip off 12 straight wins. You never know so the only way to manage it properly is to bet smart every time. If you do that, the Premium Plays and by extension the Robin Hood Selections/Club will be a very enjoyable and LONG TERM profitable endeavor!

I was back and forth about what to do for Saturday. Whether to do a Premium Play or go to a Robin Hood Selection since the Premium Play run was broken in college. I have decided this Saturday and Sunday will be Premium Plays. The reason is I have a little something special I want to do with the Robin Hood Club for the Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend. So, I am going to do a Premium Play again for this Saturday’s College Football! As I do every Tuesday, the PRE-ORDER is now open! I expect the play to be released at 11am ET on Saturday if the play is a 12pm ET game or 1pm ET for everything else. If you would like to pre-order this week’s NCAAF Premium Play or to get more details on Premium Plays, you can do so at TheSharpPlays.net/premium/. Thank you for the support and remember, bet smart! Locks and “sure things” do not exist… don’t bet like they do!

For the week ahead, it’s all business as usual. The MACTION during the week continues and I have to admit, I love it. I think MAC football is a lot of fun. You are usually never out of a MAC game until the end. MACTION  usually gets good sharp attention too. We’ll see if the sharps can turn things around this week. The public will always have their big weekends during the season. I mean they need it otherwise they would stop betting. Usually public runs are very strong but short lived. Hopefully it turns back in the sharp’s favor this week and we can then capitalize! I am going to have the 1st Period algorithm in action all week for testing purposes. Amazing when I flipped it to a fade it goes 0-4. It’s like it just wants to be a fade no matter what I do. So we’ll see what happens there. The algorithm star of the week was the NCAABB totals algorithm which moved to 8-5 for the 1st Half and 10-3 for the full game. The algorithm was designed for the full game but I am tracking the 1st Half correlation to potentially maximize the profit potential. Also someone had asked and yes, I bet on any algorithm play I post that is NOT in testing. The testing ones I just monitor until they meet the proper criteria.

Early Sharp Buys (10-8 YTD) –  The Early Sharp Buys are back to the 1-1 consistency. The past weekend the Early Sharp Buy was on West Virginia which won easy but lost just as easy with Washington -1 in the NFL. Let’s see if these can break out again this week with the 2-0 SWEEP! It is kind of funny that they either go 2-0 or 1-1. At least you don’t lose much when you follow these. For the week ahead, the top sharp buy in NCAAF is Tennessee at +6.5 and +6. The public has pushed this line up and as soon as it got to 6.5, the sharps slammed it hard back down to +5. Over in the NFL, the early sharp buy is Denver +5 over Buffalo. The Robin Hood Selection this past week was on the Bills so I watched the game end to end. Some observations… the Bills absolutely dominated the Dolphins in yardage and on both sides of the ball. The Dolphins had a big play that lead to a TD and ran a kickoff back. Without those it would have been a 37-6 game. The problem for the Bills is not only did they let Miami hang in the game but they let TD’s turn into field goals. It showed the ineptitude of their offense. The saving grace for the Bills cover was simply that Miami was worse. So, as bad as Denver is, I could see this one because of the Bills keeping teams in the game and their offensive failures. We’ll see!

Early Algorithm Look (2-1 YTD) –  Michigan St is like the Chicago Bears of the NFL. The Spartans always show as having value but the value rarely cashes. The Early Algorithm Look lost with Michigan St this past weekend. For the week ahead, the algorithm I use for this column is showing the top value as Texas A&M +13.5 over Georgia. It has calculated the line as A&M at +9.5. 

My Handicapping (BEWARE 5-6 YTD) –  I AM ON FIRE!!!!!! My quest to have a winning record for my handicapping section took a step in the right direction as I cashed with Cleveland -2.5 over Pittsburgh. The win moves me to 5-6 on the season! I have never been a good handicapper. I have always relied on the information I had access and my algorithms. If my algorithms don’t show value and if I don’t have any information on a game then my opinion is as good as flipping a coin. However I am determined to have every section of the newsletter close the season with a winning record. The other two sections currently have one, it is time for me to carry my weight. My play this week is going to be on Cleveland -11 over Miami. Yeah, I am following Cleveland again for my section here. Going back to my comments on the Early Sharp Buy on Denver against the Bills, Miami is awful. The Browns beat the Bills, the Bills beat the Dolphins in Miami by 17. Now the Dolphins have to travel to Cleveland which is not an easy place to play. Cleveland has a great running game and a defense that is comparable to the Bills. I expect Mayfield to enjoy the fact that the Miami secondary is non-existent. He will have Hunt more used to the offense and has some great weapons at his disposal. The Browns need a game where they just roll over someone that they are supposed to roll over. I expect this to be a blowout. If the Bills had any sort of aggression on offense the game would have been 55-3. I think Cleveland takes it to the Dolphins. My play is Cleveland -11!

My Two Cents –   Next week brings Thanksgiving! Even as a kid, Thanksgiving wasn’t a holiday I got overly excited about. I mean it was always nice to be out of school but beyond that it was just some good food. However Thanksgiving did signify something I would get excited about, the rush to Christmas was beginning! It was a great time of year to be a kid and even as an adult I love this time of year! The holiday season means over a month of food, family, fun and football! Who doesn’t love that afternoon college football which goes on every Black Friday?!?! Then before we know it we’ll all be watching the conference championships and then it’s time for the BOWLS!! College Bowls are my favorite events to bet on each year. Some of my fondest betting memories are about bets on bowl games. The first time I really unloaded on a bet was on an NCAA Bowl game. It was the Peach Bowl in 2003 and I bet $10K on Maryland +1. At that time in my life, $10K felt like I bet $1M. Funny, even as I type about that bet I remember and can physically feel the emotions from that day. I remember putting the bet in, pressing confirm and thinking… oh baby, here we go! In the end, the Terps +1 won the game 30-3, I didn’t even have to sweat. It was awesome and one of the many vivid betting memories I have to this day. Yes, this play was due to information from my work in the business. You don’t think I would bet that much on a play I handicapped do you?!?!? LOL! Not a chance! One of my favorite perks of working in the gaming industry is the information. With Thanksgiving approaching next week and with nothing major on my mind, I thought I would discuss some plans from now to March 1st.

Between now and the Super Bowl my daily content will be the usual algorithms, sharp action and the concentrations. Mix in some other information of interest that might pop up and that’s the daily menu. The weekly newsletter here will continue to Week #17 of the NFL regular season. Then the newsletter will be done until regular season football returns in late August 2020. When it comes to the selections I offer for purchase (Premium Plays/Robin Hood Selections), I will continue to do those on the weekends through the conference championships and only on football. When the conference championships are over, I will then cover NCAABB for any selections available for purchase on a Saturday. I know this was a request (to have NCAABB Premium Plays). Yes, those will come when the NCAAF conference championships are over. For the Bowls, I do expect to have Premium Plays and Robin Hood Selections on Bowl games when warranted. Despite saying I will cover bowl games with those selections, I still only expect to have selections available for purchase once or twice a week at most. Everything else will be posted free to Twitter and the website. Until the National Championship game in January, my priority will be football coverage and then everything else. Once the NCAAF Championship game is over, then my priority will be NFL and NCAABB until the Super Bowl.

The discussion of plans for the end of the year through to the Super Bowl leads me into another thing I wanted to discuss… my plans for an L.J. reboot. I have talked a lot about doing an algorithm that incorporated not just algorithmic calculation but also The Sharp Plays Index and sharp play information. It would basically calculate everything into one final output with a rating. It’ll be something in testing but my goal is to have this be a fully automated algorithm and provide the top value of the day. I would like it operational by February. The reason is that as many of you know, I take off the month of February. You ask when I sleep, February is a full month of R&R for me. I do a bunch of traveling and generally step away from the computer. It’s something I have done since I got started in this business all the way back in 1999! While I do step away from the computer, I do not turn it off! LOL!! So, if you are getting anxious over not seeing me in your life each day, do not worry! I will still tweet out information and update the website daily throughout February. I mean I need to keep track for myself too! It’s just the level of content in February will be about 20% of what you would expect to see on a day like today. I’ll just do a morning update and then 1-3 updates for the rest of the day with anything exciting that I am alerted on. I won’t run my algorithms, I won’t sit down and do the public and sharp concentrations each night, I won’t cover every sport each day. Those of you who followed me last February will remember, despite the R&R and travel that I would still post Mr. Poison religiously each day when he bet along with any major sharp or heavy public information that popped up. I would also like to have the Little John algorithm operational well in advance of February. I think it would add a nice feature and it would not require me to be at the computer. It won’t be a lot of content each day but it will be content that I expect to be profitable, interesting and helpful in your betting. Then March 1st rolls around and it is business as usual! Stay tuned for a Little John reboot. I am working on the setup now and am planning to have it ready for next week.

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays