The Sharp Plays Newsletter – Week #13

Recap & Week Ahead –  It was another very public Saturday. Back to back weeks the books have gotten killed in college football. There was some take back for the books on Sunday in the NFL until the Ravens cleaned the Rams’ clock last night. The result on Monday Night Football hurt books and sharps alike. On Saturday, Premium Plays moved to 8-2 (5-2 NCAAF & 3-0 NFL) after losing with South Alabama +9. Despite how bad they played the entire game, South Alabama actually had a decent backdoor cover chance at the end of the game. Unfortunately though, they did not complete it. Of course, “Just Missed” Premium Plays went 1-0 on Saturday and 1-0 on Sunday. Even the just missed “Just Missed” Premium Play on Kent St +3.5 came home a winner too. Clearly something to the sharp consensus angle. Unfortunately, the other purchase play this weekend was Sunday’s Robin Hood Selection which failed on Philadelphia. It was one of those tough games to watch as the Philly defense played hard and kept them in the game but Wentz and the offense looked like the Keystone Cops. Three great drives and Wentz gave up the ball every time. Oh well, we all get to go Clubbing!

Below are the performance breakdowns from this past weekend. Don’t forget to also check the main page of the website (TheSharpPlays.com or TheSharpPlays.net) each morning to view the updated content tracking table. I only do these daily breakdowns on Twitter for the weekend due to the volume of content posted on Saturday and Sunday…

SUNDAY
Robin Hood Club +1.17 units
Just Missed Premium 1-0
NFL v2.0 Spread 1-0
Grand Salami 1-0
1st Period 1-0
1st Quarter Algo 1-0 (10-2 L12)
My Handicapping 1-0 (newsletter)
NCAABB Totals Algo 2-1
Early Sharp Buy 0-1
LSM Sides 0-2
Robin Hood Play 0-1

SATURDAY
Early Sharp Buy 1-0 (newsletter)
Early Algo 1-0 (newsletter)
Premium Play 0-1 (8-2 YTD)
“Just Missed” Premium Play 1-0
NCAABB Totals Algo 3-0
Grand Salami 0-1 (we got hooked!)
Late Sharp Money Sides 0-2
NCAAF Spread Algo 0-3
NCAAF Totals Algo 1-3

I talked last week about how I wanted to do a little something special this week for Black Friday. I remember handicappers and services would make up funny names for their Thanksgiving weekend packages like “Turkey Shoot” or “Feast on Your Bookmaker”. So, I am going to call what I have going on as The Sharp Plays BLACK FRIDAY BONANZA! Every week in this section I let you know what selection I will be posting for sale. For the week ahead I am going to offer multi-day access to the sharp consensus. Since I started doing the Premium Plays and the “Just Missed” Premium Plays, people have asked for the sharp consensus content daily. Currently, the Premium Play record is 8-2 (5-2 NCAAF and 3-0 NFL) and the “Just Missed” Premium Play record is 6-1-2 for 14-3-2 combined. Hopefully that performance will continue this weekend! While I am definitely not interested in doing a daily service (although I pretty much do it free daily on Twitter anyway), I said I would occasionally do a short multi-day run with the sharp consensus or the top bettor information. There’s no better week to do one of these multi-day packages than this weekend! The Thanksgiving weekend gives us football action every single day. Plus you also have NBA and NCAA basketball, hockey, soccer and more. I expect the consensus to concentrate on football, I will also provide coverage of consensus action in the other sports should some show up. If this sort of thing interests you and you would like to purchase the Black Friday BONANZA, which again will include all the sharp consensus information for Thursday, Friday and Saturday, you can do so at TheSharpPlays.net/premium/. The cost to be a part of it is only $30 which works out to $10 a day for all things sharp consensus this weekend. The purchase is non-guaranteed. The first update will be 11am ET on Black Friday (11/29). Thank you for the support and remember, bet smart! Locks and “sure things” do not exist… don’t bet like they do!

For the week ahead there will be plenty of action across all sports. My plan is to obviously have the Robin Hood Club operate daily until the guarantee is completed. If it gets to Thursday I do not except to do an update on Thursday because Thanksgiving is RARELY EVER a good day for sharp action. It’s like the books are thankful for bettors so they give them some cash back. Usually the book gets the money back during the weekend but for Thanksgiving at least, the public gets a refund. I will also have the Premium Play package (Black Friday Bonanza) running Friday through Sunday. The Robin Hood Club and the Premium Play package will be the only things available for purchase this week. Everything else will be posted on Twitter. When it comes to Twitter this weekend (Thanksgiving through Sunday) I will cover NFL, NCAAF and the NCAABB algorithm. Beyond those sports I am not sure what level of content I will have as I will be enjoying family, friends, food and football. It’s my one recharge weekend before the bowls as I get my body ready for the marathon run from now through the Super Bowl. Then February and a month off with some nice vacation planned! I can’t wait!! In between now and then though, let’s cash some tickets!

Early Sharp Buys (11-9 YTD) –  What would you expect from these? Yep!!! Early Sharp Buys stay with the 1-1 weekly consistency. The past weekend the Early Sharp Buy was on Tennessee +6 in NCAAF which won easy outright but lost just as easy with Denver +5 in the NFL. Maybe Thanksgiving will help get us to the 2-0 SWEEP! It is kind of funny that they either go 2-0 or 1-1. At least you don’t lose much when you follow these. For the week ahead, the top sharp buy in NCAAF is Oregon up to -19 over Oregon St on Saturday. Over in the NFL, the early sharp buy is Atlanta +6 over New Orleans on Thursday night.

Early Algorithm Look (3-1 YTD) –  Texas A&M gets the win at +13.5 for the Early Algorithm Look in last week’s newsletter. For the week ahead, the algorithm I use for this column is showing the top value as San Francisco +5 over Baltimore (5Dimes). It has calculated the line as +2. Since it is over the key number of +3 we get some further bonus value in the current price. The line, as expected and based on the performance last night, is higher than it should be due to public perception. We’ll play the value!

My Handicapping (BEWARE 6-6 YTD) –  I AM ON FIRE AND NOW AT .500!!!!!! My quest to have a winning record for my handicapping section of the newsletter took another step in the right direction as I cashed with Cleveland -11 over Miami. Thanks to Cleveland for helping me cash the ticket in this section the past two weeks! The win moves me to 6-6 on the season! For my disclaimer every week, I have never been a good handicapper. I have always relied on the information I had access and my algorithms. If my algorithms don’t show value and if I don’t have any information on a game then my opinion is as good as flipping a coin. However I am determined to have every section of the newsletter close the season with a winning record. The other two sections currently have winning records, it is time for me to carry my weight. My play this week is going to be on Cleveland! No I am just kidding, I went with Cleveland the past two weeks. We got our money, time to move on. I am going to take a really ugly play though. I am going with Michigan +9 over Ohio St. There is just something about this game and line that keeps drawing me in. I think Penn St is a good team but they were able to give Ohio St some issues. More issues than I expected. While I don’t expect Michigan to upset Ohio St, I think this is too many points. I think Ohio St will be worn down a little from a tough game at Penn St and might have trouble with gas in their tank this week especially on the road. So, I am taking this game because I think the line is too high for a team that I think will have energy issues. I also think Michigan will give it everything they have this week and everything they have, at home, might just keep this within the number. We’ll see if I am wrong but I am going with Michigan +9!

My Two Cents –   A brief two cents this week as it’s a busy week for me. So that I can enjoy my Thanksgiving I need pack everything I have to do into today and tomorrow. If I achieve that goal then my agenda will be light on Thursday. I know this newsletter goes out to people worldwide. So for those outside the US, I hope you have an excellent week of wagering! For those inside the US, I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving with your friends and family! It really is a great time of year as it kicks off the run from now to Christmas. It is perhaps the one time of year that we ground ourselves a bit in what is really important… spending time with people we love, seeing our child’s face light up on Christmas or Hanukkah. I hope you will savor those moments this holiday season and I hope you have many of them! It’s those moments that are most important in life, not who covered or the bad beat on a total. Best of luck in your action and here’s to a great and profitable finish to what has been a great and very profitable year!

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays