The Sharp Plays Newsletter – Week #14

Recap & Week Ahead –  Saturdays continued favoring the public for college football this past weekend. A lot of big chalks got home and John Q loves it! It was not nearly as public as the previous two weeks but it still leaned public. Perhaps the books were letting the public get fat for the inevitable bowl slaughter?? Usually how it goes. The public is vastly over matched when it comes to information and analysis in the bowls. Usually it is a sharp’s Christmas bonus! Over in the NFL, the sharps continued to have their success but the public also got a few of their bets home. New England was not so good for the public though! Mr. Poison took a bit hit on that one!

Speaking of Christmas, I cannot believe December is already upon us! It’s the holidays, the bowls, the NFL regular season concludes, NCAABB in full swing… what more can a gambler want??? You better get a helmet and put your seat belt on, it’s going to be a wild ride to end 2019!

Below are the performance breakdowns from this past weekend. Don’t forget to also check the main page of the website (TheSharpPlays.com or TheSharpPlays.net) each morning to view the updated content tracking table. I only do these daily breakdowns on Twitter for the weekend due to the volume of content posted on Saturday and Sunday…

SUNDAY
Premium Play 1-0
Other Sharp Consensus 1-0
1st Quarter Algorithm 1-0
Late Sharp Money Sides 1-0
Mr. P Fade 1-0 (+155)
NCAABB Totals Algorithm 2-1
Robin Hood Club +0.60 units
NFL Spread v2.0 Algorithm 0-1

SATURDAY
“Just Missed” Premium Play 0-1
Other Sharp Consensus 2-0*
NCAAF Side Algo 1-1
Late Sharp Money Total 1-1
LSM Total NBA 0-1
NCAAF Totals Algo 0-1
Robin Hood Club -0.38 units

The Black Friday Bonanza was a big success this past weekend! Premium Plays went 2-0, Just Missed Premium Plays went 0-1 and the new category of “Other Sharp Consensus” information went 3-0! Given the performance there was a lot of demand for me to do something similar this weekend. So, for the week ahead I am going to again offer multi-day access to the sharp consensus. Currently, the Premium Play record is 10-2 (6-2 NCAAF and 4-0 NFL) and the “Just Missed” Premium Play record is 6-2 for 16-4 combined. During the Bonanza I began monitoring a new category of sharp consensus information that I will simply call “Other Sharp Consensus”. The category is now 4-0 since I have tracked it. If this sort of thing interests you, I am offering the sharp consensus access for Saturday and Sunday this week as one package. To purchase you would visit TheSharpPlays.net/premium/. The cost to be a part of it is only $30 which works out to $15 a day for all things sharp consensus this weekend. The purchase is non-guaranteed. The first update will be 11am ET on Saturday. I am not sure how many selections there will be. It’s always tough to predict because it is based on others betting, not me. I would expect, at a minimum, one selection that would qualify as a Premium Play, “Just Missed” Premium Play or one of the “Other Sharp Consensus” plays each day. Be aware, I do not make shit up. If there isn’t something that qualifies as a Premium Play or “Just Missed” Premium Play, I am not going to say there is and put one out there just to do it. I take pride in my content’s performance and will not put out content I know does not meet the criteria just to put it out. If there are no selections of any kind, the package would roll to next weekend. Thank you for the support and remember, bet smart! Locks and “sure things” do not exist… don’t bet like they do!

For the week ahead the big news is the Little John Protocol. For further details you can visit www.TheSharpPlays.net/lj. Suffice it to say, I have talked about doing an algorithm that combined combined The Sharp Plays Index plus the sharp money in action plus my algorithms themselves to analyze the games for a given day. It has been something I have been working on since the summer and I am rolling it out today. The initial selections will be a part of the Robin Hood Club but eventually it will make it to Twitter. I look forward to seeing how this performs. You really never know how something will be until you test it in real time. If it is an epic failure, I am fine with that. Part of finding the Holy Grail is the journey! So stay tuned for updates on the Little John Protocol. I am really hoping to have it fully functional for the bowls!

Early Sharp Buys (11-11 YTD) –  These went 0-2 this past week with Oregon and Atlanta. I like the idea of this section but up to this point in the season it has broken even. I think the issue with early sharp money is that a lot of it can be bought out later which negates the value of it. It’s not like it had a devastating record, it’s only 11-11 but it just didn’t get the momentum I had hoped. I think next year this will be replaced with another feature of some kind. Kind of like the Little John Protocol, sometimes ideas work and sometimes they do not. I know this section is of interest to many of you though so I will continue it until the season is over. Hopefully it can end with a winning record. As I said, I would like all three selection sections of the newsletter to have profitable records. The early sharp buy this week for NCAAF is Florida Atlantic at -7. The books then moved to -7.5 and the sharp buying has dried up from what I see. Over in the NFL, the early sharp buy is on Washington down to +13. Redskins played good as we know so perhaps two weeks in a row?!?

Early Algorithm Look (4-1 YTD) –  The section here continues to be the all-star of the newsletter as it got another win last week. Last week the play was San Francisco which pretty much was covering a healthy amount in the game. For the week ahead, the early algorithm look is showing the most value on Oakland +3 over Tennessee. When it spit this game out I thought, damn that’s ugly. It still is but given Tennessee is red hot lately, the line is a little out of whack given the public perception. I will take the key number of +3, buy it up to +3.5 myself and hopefully see this section move to 5-1 after Sunday!

My Handicapping (BEWARE 6-7 YTD) –  I was at .500 and then Harbaugh and the guys let me down. I want this to have a winning record for the end of the season which makes this a “must win” week for me. I am going to go with LSU -7.5 over Georgia. I do see sharp action on LSU too which makes me feel happier with my assessment. I think Georgia is a joke. OK, maybe joke is a strong word. I think they are overrated though. We had Auburn as a Premium Play over Georgia and frankly, Auburn played bad for three quarters and despite how bad they played, Georgia could not capitalize. I have been unimpressed with Georgia’s offense. Georgia’s defense is good but it is hardly the dominant force it used to be. I think LSU is a machine and they will want to put a stamp on this season with a monster win here. The line is -7.5, I will buy this down to -7. I expect LSU to do whatever they want with the Georgia defense. LSU won’t have to do a lot on defense either to stop Georgia. I am on LSU -7.5 which I will buy down to -7! I look for LSU easily by double digits. GO TIGERS!!!!

My Two Cents –   All I want for Christmas is for gamblers to understand how gambling works! When people go into gambling with this “winning is easy” mentality that they pick up along the way, it just sets them on the wrong path. If you don’t understand how hard long term winning is in gambling, you then don’t appreciate the effort it takes to get there. Gambling because “easy money” and it is anything but easy. Instead novice gamblers tend to think you handicap a game and if you did your best then you will easily find yourself in the realm of winning 60%+ of your bets. Sure, you can hit 60% over 20, 50, 100 plays. Over hundreds of plays over years of betting, the mathematics show how unreasonable that assumption can be. Instead if you can hit 56%, you can be a millionaire! It’s that “easy”. You don’t need 60,70% winners.

The concern I have with this topic is with the proliferation of sports betting catching on like wildfire across the US, bettors who have never placed a sports bet are walking up to counters all around the country and placing a bet with the wrong mindset. If you think winning is easy, you will inevitably find out how going bankrupt is even easier. Why do I preach this all the time, I have been on the other side of the desk for the last 20 years in the sports betting business. I have watched bettors make tremendous livings out of sports betting, I have watched bettors have fun and pass the time betting and I have watched bettors completely destroy themselves and their families with devastating consequences. It is sad, awful, leaves a lot of collateral damage and in every case is preventable! If me preaching this over and over in different ways prevents even one person from falling into that abyss, I have done a great job and it was worth it. Saving that one person not only saves them but everyone connected to them. I have witnessed Santa fail to come for many kids at this time of year because Santa lost the money at the track, casino or to the bookmaker. Speaking of which, there are a lot of kids, through no fault of their own, who Santa “forgets” to visit. If you have done well this year, grab a toy or two for your local church, place of worship or Toys for Tots. My wife and I put on a Christmas party once for a local halfway house for kids, it remains one of my best Christmas memories. It’s a long story, I will save it for another time during this holiday season. However it made me appreciate how lucky I was even on my worst day and how unfortunately, some kids really are forgotten. Sometimes that one magical Christmas of toy can make all the difference for them. We complain about wins and losses, be sure to smell the roses from time to time and realize what a problem really is in life. It’s not losing a unit or two on a game. If that’s your worst problem, you are doing great! 

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays