Recap & Week Ahead – The college football season ended in a strong public fashion. The one saving grace for the books on Saturday was that Ohio St did not cover, otherwise all the big public bets… LSU, Clemson, Baylor all got there. Typically the end of the college football season does favor the public. However once the bowls start then the books and the sharps collect their Christmas bonus! We will soon find out if that will play out the same way this year. Over in the NFL it was a fairly public week too. Recently the NFL has been very good to books and sharps, not so for the public. So, the public even got a little back in the NFL this week.
Below are the performance breakdowns from this past weekend. Don’t forget to also check the main page of the website (TheSharpPlays.com or TheSharpPlays.net) each morning to view the updated content tracking table. I only do these daily breakdowns on Twitter for the weekend due to the volume of content posted on Saturday and Sunday…
Premium Play 0-1
Just Missed Premium 1-0
Robin Hood Club +0.17 units
Early Sharp Buy (newsletter) 1-0
NFL Spread Algo 1-0
Pro’s v Joe’s 1-0
LSM Sides 1-1
LSM Totals 0-1
Mr. P Fade 1-2
Personal Play 0-1
Early Algo Look 0-1
1st Qtr Algo 0-1
Premium Play 0-1
Just Missed Play 0-1
Other Sharp Consensus 1-0
Late Sharp Money Totals 1-0
Totals Algo 1-0
My Handicapping (newsletter) 1-0
Early Sharp Buy (newsletter) 1-0
Public Concentration Fade 3-1
Mr. P Fade 1-1
Sharp Concentrations 2-2
Robin Hood Club -1.38 units
The Bonanza this past weekend did not live up to the hype or the performance of the previous week. This past weekend the Bonanza went 2-3 on the selections within which includes the 0-2 performance from the Premium Plays. I guess it was due for a clunker week given the top sharp consensus content was 20-4 heading into last weekend! Now that we got the clunker out of the way, hopefully we can get back to collecting on the top sharp consensus plays. For the rest of the month and through to March 1st, the “Just Missed” Premium Plays, which are now 7-3 for 70% ATS and the Other Sharp Consensus Plays, which are now 5-0 ATS will be posted FREE to Twitter. I used them for the Bonanzas but with those over, they will be back to Twitter. What I will be offering as the content available for purchase this week is an NFL Premium Play. The Premium Play record is 10-4 (6-3 NCAAF and 4-1 NFL). If there is no play that qualifies as a Premium Play on Sunday, the purchase will move to next Sunday’s NFL and so on. To purchase the upcoming Premium Play on pre-order, you would visit TheSharpPlays.net/premium/. The cost is $25 and the benefit of pre-ordering is you have plenty of time to test your password before the release of the selection. Also, pre-order customers will receive the selection via email (provided your email provider doesn’t block it as spam… if they do, that’s why you also get a password to access) and usually pre-order buyers get the play 10-15 minutes before it is announced available publicly. The Premium Play purchase is non-guaranteed. The play will be released by 12pm ET on Sunday. Thank you for the support and remember, bet smart! Locks and “sure things” do not exist… don’t bet like they do!
For the week ahead there really isn’t much going on. It’s the first Saturday without a slate of college football, aside from the Army/Navy game. Yesterday I put together an article discussing my plans for the bowls, for December and really for everything from now to March 1st. If you didn’t get a chance to read, it is worth taking a look if you plan to follow my content. The article can be found at https://thesharpplays.net/winter2019-20/. I just realized something as I was putting this newsletter together, I only have one more newsletter that I will be doing for this season! WOW!! I will not be doing a newsletter the week of Christmas. It’s just too busy of a time with prep on Monday the 23rd, then a family Christmas party on the 24th and of course Christmas itself on Wednesday the 25th. So, only this week and next week with the newsletter for the 2019-20 football season! WOW again!
Early Sharp Buys (13-11 YTD) – These went 2-0 this past weekend to get back to a winning record! I will not cover the bowl games in this section because the early buys are notorious for being late sharp head fakes. I will discuss the bowls as they get closer and usually only on game day when you can get a better look at the action from start to finish. Let’s take a look at the NFL, this week the early NFL sharp buy is on, of all teams, the Bears down to +4 over Green Bay. At this point in the week the Bears are by far getting the most sharp attention. Who doesn’t love to back Trubisky and Nagy?!?!
Early Algorithm Look (4-2 YTD) – The Raiders started the game strong last week but then fell apart. The loss on Oakland +3 brings this section of the weekly newsletter to 4-2. Let’s get back to cashing tickets with the Early Algorithm Look! I am showing, per the NFL algorithm I have used for this section, the best value is on the New York Giants -3.5 over Miami. Will old Eli be able to take advantage of the highly suspect Dolphins secondary? The algorithm sure thinks so!
My Handicapping (BEWARE 7-7 YTD) – It was a tough one to win. I had LSU as my handicapping play last week. It was a win I didn’t get too excited about because it went against the Bonanza play from the top sharp consensus. I thought I was screwed when the sharp consensus was showing on Georgia. In the end I got the win and moved to 7-7. Boy do I feel pressure this week. As I said, I wanted to have every section of this newsletter with a winning record when the end of the season arrived. As I said above, with only this week and next week left for this season of the newsletter, I have to go 2-0!! Otherwise I will be .500 at best or losing at worst. Oh my goodness, THE PRESSURE!!!!!! I can’t take it!!! Alright, deep breath, here we go! I have a team which you should have no problem trusting in and which I am confident will easily get me the cover. I am going to go with… Arizona +3 (-120) over Cleveland. OH MY GOODNESS, NOT KYLER MURRAY!! Arizona is hanging right now at +3 over at Bookmaker as I type this up. Last week the Bonanza had both of these plays. Cleveland got the miracle undeserving cover and Arizona blew about 46 different opportunities to not only cover but make it a blowout win against Pittsburgh. Cleveland looked awful against a Bengals team that really was just going through the motions and barely got us the cover. Now the Browns have to travel to Arizona to play a team that is very undervalued. I know we all got to see Kyler Murray as a joke last week but we saw the same with Freddie and Baker. I think the home team has enough defense to give Mayfield fits, I don’t think Freddie will adjust well and I think Murray will do just enough to get the outright win. I will gladly take the +3 over at Bookmaker right now on Arizona! Take the Cardinals +3! I would buy this line up to +3 if the book you have is at 2.5. A must win situation for me! Come on Arizona!!
My Two Cents – I wasn’t sure what to discuss this week as I actually had a few things on my mind. As the season winds down I reflect on the first full football season putting the volume of content out there that I did this year. First, I had a ton of fun this football season. I hope all of you did as well. The volume of content was tremendous in terms of quantity and overall quality. Which leads to one quick point. A lot of people treat what I do as a handicapper or Tout whereby everything I release is something I advise you to bet on. It is not. It’s fine by me if you consider me a Tout (capital “T” please) but my content is intended to be more like a news feed. I report what’s going on in the markets and then you fade, follow or fuck off (you guys/girls make me laugh when you bring up that line). I don’t care what you do with the content. My goal is to give you the content. If you want to fade it, I am all for it. If you want to follow it, I am all for it. If you want to fuck off, hey that’s cool too. I do what I do because I have fun with it and I hope you do too. If not, I’ll be OK. LOL! How you use what I do is entirely up to you and I wish you the best of luck whether fading or following the content. I don’t post the content so that you should bet with everything I list as “sharp” and fade everything I list as “public”. I am just reporting on what is going on in the betting markets. My goal is that this information will help you make better informed decisions. Even the content I sell… people take it as a directive that they MUST bet it. Sure, if you are purchasing something you want to get a benefit out of that purchase. However if you like (just an example, not real) Oakland this week but the Premium Play which you bought is on Jacksonville, it’s up to you how you want to bet it. OK maybe that means you paid $25 for a play and you aren’t betting because you like Oakland and thereby are getting no value out of the purchase. I get that but then hopefully all the free content makes up for the $25 you paid but didn’t use. The goal of what I do is, using the Premium Play content in this example, you can be better informed on the action in the markets. You can now sit there and tell yourself… “OK, I love Oakland but the Premium Play is on Jacksonville and those are 10-4 this season and 4-1 in the NFL. Hmmmmmm…. do I want to stick with Oakland, bet Oakland small, take Jacksonville or just pass.” I cannot stress this point enough. I report content and I track that content so you know the past performance of the content to make a completely informed decision before betting. If I post the sharps are on Tampa, THAT DOES NOT MEAN YOU SHOULD BLINDLY GO AND BET TAMPA! Maybe they are a good play, maybe they are not. I am just reporting and I will track how that information performs for future reference… by you.
The other thing I want to touch on is when content I sell loses (like this past weekend with the 2-3 Bonanza) people will ask what they get for free because it lost. What can I give free when I give 95% of the content out for free anyway? If you then want the other 5% for free, well why the hell am I doing what I do? So, I often will say, I am sorry for the loss and I hope the free content this coming week will make up for it. I do not charge for my daily content. I put in the time each day and throughout the day to put out the best content I can get my hands on. Again, I have a passion for action! My goal is the content will help you in your betting whether you are a fader or a follower. In return for how the free content helped you that week, you will reciprocate by purchasing content when I have it available for sale (usually 1-2 times a week). Your purchase supports things important to me, I provide content which hopefully provides you a net positive return to support things important to you. Using the Tout example above, instead of having a $25-$50 per week fee for the content I post and tracking I do, you get the content for free and if you did well with it you can purchase the content I have for sale that week. Doing things this way thereby gives you the freedom. You get the content free and only pay for something if the free content was worthwhile and you want to reciprocate. It also gives me the motivation to make sure I put out the best free content possible. If the content sucked, why in God’s name would you then spend money on content I put out for sale?!?! Anyway, I like to think it is a pretty fair way of doing it. You get the content up front and you have the option to purchase content if you feel what I sourced was worthwhile that week. If not, I’ll work harder next time boss!!!! LOL! I love doing The Sharp Plays and to then be able to use that passion to help others, who in turn support things important to me… doesn’t get any better! Yin and yang! Thank you for being a part of all of this with me! I know I say a lot of this over and over but understanding my purposes and goals with the content will hopefully help you better grasp how best to use that content!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays