Recap & Week Ahead – It is weird just to recap things when there is only the Army/Navy game in college football and everything else is NFL. However that’s what happens when the season is over! Amazing how quickly it went by. I remember celebrating a win on Miami Florida with all of you in Week 0. Seems like yesterday and this weekend begins the bowls! The public has been in control of NCAAF so I hope the bowls bring out the sharp/value performance. Typically that is how it goes. The public gets fat at the end of the season and the sharps slaughter them in the bowls. Remains to be seen what will happen this year but I will be prepared to attack the sharp sides and values! In the NFL, this past Sunday was great for the content, especially the Robin Hood Club! I still think the best part was the miracle comeback for the Premium Play. I know it’s not a win but when we considered our tickets as coasters or kindling for the yule log in the 1st Quarter, I will take a push and for many a win who bought the hook. Let’s get them again this weekend!! Of course the week ahead has the start of bowls as I said but it also begins Saturday NFL action! So it should be a full weekend of football! Hopefully it is a strong finish to what has been a very good NFL season for the content overall. I am not feeling well today as you may have seen in the RHC or on Twitter. So I will use that as an excuse if my English is not proper or I am repetitive. However the newsletter is supposed to be out on Tuesdays so the show must go on regardless of how I feel!
Below are the performance breakdowns from this past weekend. Don’t forget to also check the main page of the website (TheSharpPlays.com or TheSharpPlays.net) each morning to view the updated content tracking table. I only do these daily breakdowns on Twitter for the football weekends due to the volume of content posted on Saturday and Sunday. I will probably continue it through the NCAABB season given the content that will be posted there. Here’s what went on this weekend…
Robin Hood Club +3.25 units
Premium Play 0-0-1
Just Missed Premium 1-0
Pizza Bets 2-0
Early Algorithm Look (newsletter) 1-0
My Handicapping (newsletter) 1-0
NFL Spread algo 1-0
NFL 1st Qtr algo 1-0
Late Sharp Money Totals 1-1
Early Sharp Buy (newsletter) 0-1
Mr. P Fade 0-1
Robin Hood Club +0.45u
1st Period algo 2-0 +2.3u
NCAAF algo 1-0
UFC algo 1-0
Late Sharp Money Sides 1-0
LJP “5” Score 1-0
Mr. P Fade 1-0
Fade Public Concentration 3-1
Grand Salami 0-1
Just Missed Premium 0-1
Follow Sharp Concentration 0-3
The Premium Play (10-4 on the season, 4-1 in the NFL, 6-3 in NCAAF) did not get the win this past week. You might have already heard, it was a miracle push (LOL!!). I have received a ton of messages asking about what the paid content will be this week. I have kindly (LOL) received a number of ideas (DEMANDS!!!) for some sort of bowl content. Over the weekend you may have read my white paper (TheSharpPlays.net/automation/) about the automated system I wanted with the top sharp consensus and LJP system. A BIG THANK YOU to the tireless work of my all around technology provider (EDFX) getting it done. I have an idea and they make it happen. Don’t know where I would be without them. Anyway, I love the idea and I am dying to test it out in real-time. Some of you wanted the system for the weekend. How about a package to cover ALL THE BOWLS?!?! I am SO GLAD the LJP system showing those plays which flipped in the final hour to post time went 2-0 (if you missed it, here are the posts… https://twitter.com/TheSharpPlays/status/1206762973722755073?s=20 & https://twitter.com/TheSharpPlays/status/1206762666951421952?s=20. The performance, one of which was another miracle comeback, illustrates what I was hoping for out of this system. As a reminder from last week, for the rest of the month and through to March 1st, the “Just Missed” Premium Plays, which are now 8-4 for 67% ATS and the Other Sharp Consensus Plays, which are now 5-0 ATS will be posted FREE to Twitter. So what do you get with the Bowl Bonanza?!?! Every day there is a bowl game you will get the LJP rating, updated right up to game time, for the side and total of every bowl game through the National Championship. I am excited to see some of those flip flop games we saw lost night but this time in the bowls! You will also receive the sharp consensus count, updated right up to game time of each bowl game which also means any Premium Plays are included in this package as well! Any Just Missed or Other Top Sharp Consensus Plays will be posted free to Twitter. So you don’t need this package to get the Just Missed or Other Top Sharp Consensus. Again, the Bowl Bonanza package covers the real-time LJP (TheSharpPlays.net/lj) score for each bowl game’s side and total, plus the top sharp consensus count, updated in real time right up to game time and any Premium Plays that arise for the bowl games. I will not be offering a Premium Play for this week’s NFL. If there is anything at NFL Premium Play level I will post it free to Twitter. To purchase the upcoming Bowl Bonanza you would visit TheSharpPlays.net/premium/. To purchase, the cost is $40. The benefit of ordering now is you have plenty of time to test your password before the first action arrives later this week. All selections will be accessed through the website. The Bowl Bonanza purchase is non-guaranteed and works out to $1 per bowl game (40 bowl games). The Bonanza will begin this Friday! Thank you for the support and remember, bet smart! Locks and “sure things” do not exist… don’t bet like they do!
Early Sharp Buys (13-12 YTD) – The Early Sharp Buys went 0-1 for our buddy, Risky Trubisky. He had a chance at the end with the festival of laterals but the Bears did not get into the end zone. The Early Sharp Buys are now barely hanging onto a winning record but with the juice, you would be down 0.20 units. Which means the pressure is on for the Early Sharp Buy to deliver this week. If it wins, the Early Sharp Buy section ends with a profitable season. Small but profitable! So where are we going this week?!?!? I am not even kidding you though, the early sharp buy, no shit, lies with the Bears again!!! It’s like the Browns of previous seasons. They just can’t let go of the Bears. I would tell you it was another play but I have to be honest and it isn’t even close again. Bears +5.5 got 68% more sharp dollars than the next closest play (Buffalo +6.5.). So I can’t deny it again, the success of the Early Sharp Buy section for the 2019-20 football season lies with Trubisky and Nagy. I don’t know about you but I can’t think of any better hands to be in. LOL! GO BEARS!!!!!!!!!!! What could go wrong? They are only playing the Chiefs!
Early Algorithm Look (5-2 YTD) – The Giants took care of business for the Early Algorithm Look last weekend and the win clinched a winning season for this section. I am quite happy about it! Let’s move it to 6-2 on the season and finish a great section with a winner! The Early Algorithm Look is showing the top value as the Cincinnati Bengals +1 over Miami. I have this line at Cincinnati -2.5 in the algorithm I use for this section. I like this one because I think the Dolphins are just going through the motions but I think Dalton really wants to put on a show at the end of the season. I don’t think he will retire. I think he is planning to return next season, it’ll just be with another team. So I could see him putting some heart into this and he does have the support of the players. GO BENGALS!!
My Handicapping (BEWARE 8-7 YTD) – It am so awesome!! It was a pressure situation last week. I needed the win to have a chance at a winning season for the My Handicapping section of the newsletter. I went with Arizona and Kyler Murray and Freddie Kitchens did not let me down. Arizona gets the rocking chair outright win! The win moves me to 8-7 on the season and sets the stage for a BIG final weekend for the newsletter! I get the win and it is a big 9-7 winning record. So what’s the play to take me to the Promised Land? I am going with the NY Jets +3 over Pittsburgh and the Duck! J-E-T-S… Jets, Jets, Jets!!! I am showing 1-3 points of value on this one with my algorithms. However why I like it is we get the key number of +3 at home. I buying the hook to +3.5. It’s too good of a deal. The Jets have had a tough time but they have not given up just yet. The defense is strong and the offense can move the ball. Plus they are in front of their home crowd. I think the Bills exposed Duck very good on Sunday night. The Jets defense should be up to the task to keep the Steelers in check. I think it will be a close game but I like the Jets outright, however I am taking the Jets +3.5! GO JETS!!!!!! I am relying on Darnold and company to give me a 9-7 record for “My Handicapping”.
My Two Cents – What I love is when the haters criticize me for the volume I put out. I do put out a lot of content. With this being my last “Two Cents” opportunity I just wanted to say, my goal is to put out a lot of content to make you an informed bettor. I put out the content and I track the performance so you can decide what and how you want to bet. As I said last week, I am good with the title of “Tout” but other than the Robin Hood Club, I do not advise you to bet any of the content. A perfect example is the Premium Plays. I track what the top sharp consensus is betting. For those plays in the case of no contradictions (Premium Plays) the record is 10-4 overall and 4-1 in the NFL. When I say there is a qualifying Premium Play on Carolina +6, it’s up to you to analyze that wager. Do you look at it and say, OK, these are 10-4, I can’t bet against Seattle so I will bet it for $25, $50 or $100 to break even on the purchase. Do you decide you buying a hook? Do you decide the 10-4 has been hot but it is due for a regression and so you fade the play and take Seattle?!? Maybe it confirms your handicapping and you love it and so you go head over heels. However I am just reporting the action and the number. I am cool with you venting losses but I just want you to know the ideal way to use “the volumes of content” I put out. I put the content out there for you to pick and choose, or simply walk away if it isn’t for you. Yes I do celebrate the wins with you because I know you follow the content. Just like CNBC is always cheering for a bull market despite all the bears that exist in the market, I cheer on the wins for the content and yes, I cover the losses too. Not that I think of it, even with the Robin Hood Club, I give my assessment and an advised rating based on what I see and to achieve the Profit Promise. However, the decision to bet with, to fade or pass altogether is up to you. Some people used the content to make their own parlays. Whatever! I put it out and report it, you decide what to do with it. So yes, I am sorry if the volume of content is a lot, but I tend to like the offering. Further, when I put out content, people will often ask me if there is value in a bet. It’s not really for me to decide. I list the optimum number, or in the case of the Robin Hood Club, the line I will grade (worst line at major books) and if the line is different it’s up to you. The reason it is up to you is because any number but the optimum number puts you are risk of a loss when the content is graded as a win. So, it’s really not me you want to ask on line differences, it is yourself. When it comes to my algorithms, I allow for 20 cents of room to the opposite way for moneylines and half point or goal for spreads. Even then though, while there is usually value at those points, it doesn’t mean if you bet with the bad line that you won’t lose or push while the rest of us win or push. Just something to keep in mind as the content moves forward.
The high note I want to end on is as I said above it was a very enjoyable and profitable football season over all the content! I hope you made some good betting memories, cashed some tickets and had as much fun as I did with it all! Although given how I feel today, I can’t wait for the Monday after the Super Bowl! LOL! Almost there! For the week ahead and because this is the final newsletter of the football season I just want to wish all of you a very Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and for anyone offended, a Happy Holidays!! I cannot believe I won’t be doing another one of these until September 2020. Thanks for giving the weekly newsletter a read and I hope you made some money off the content. If you didn’t hopefully you got a laugh and had some fun with me. If you are concerned about their being a content gap with no newsletter, I have plenty of plans from now through to my break in February! Then we saddle up and ride for March Madness! Then it’ll be baseball season and another great time for rest. Rest sounds pretty good given how I feel today! Lastly, just as a final reminder, I put together an article discussing my plans for the bowls, for December and really for everything from now to March 1st. If you didn’t get a chance to read, it is worth taking a look if you plan to follow my content. The article can be found at https://thesharpplays.net/winter2019-20/. Thank so much for following!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays