Last week was my first ever issue of the newsletter and I was able to cover a lot of ground. With the Robin Hood Club open right now and with my article yesterday about The Sports Information Buffet (check it out at: https://thesharpplays.net/info-buffet/), there is not a lot to cover this week. Of course I do have a few things though, so let’s jump into it!
1) It was a VERY public week in college football. Those types of weeks happen and there will be at least one, if not multiple weeks like it this season. Be ready for it! When it happens, you usually can tell by the early games. If you see it and feel it, don’t push it. Forcing bets because you feel they should win or you want the tide to change does not change the tide. It’s a public day, acknowledge and move on. Save some bankroll for the next week because usually strong public weeks do not occur back to back… USUALLY! The NFL had the top public team do OK but overall the contrarian sides ended up coming out ahead. The sharp/value side was able to get a little back in the NFL on Sunday.
2) As I said in The Sports Information Buffet article, I do my best to reply to messages but please understand, I often cannot reply in a timely manner. I also give priority to Robin Hood Club or Robin Hood Selection issues/questions because in those cases someone paid for something and I want to make sure they are not left hanging. Messages outside of that, I always reply eventually but be aware, I get A LOT of messages and I am just one person who does The Sharp Plays stuff as more of a hobby during my down time. On busy game days my consulting work obviously gets priority but when I am free, I will reply and clear any messages. Also, I have had to turn my message notifications off when I am out and especially on game days because it is literally buzzing non-stop. It’s all good but please be aware, when you click send, I do not get a notification that a message came through. I won’t know of your message until I open the app and check messages. Lastly, if it is about information on a game, I have a pretty straightforward policy, if there is anything good on a game, betting worthy information, I will post it to Twitter.
3) I did not have any guest appearances this week for other football algorithms. The reason was that I just did not like how the day started. I discussed immediately how it was opening as a very public day. Public days usually are not good for value so I didn’t want to roll out any further algorithms given the tone of the day. Which means, still only one guest algorithm appearance so far this season (see record below). Hopefully this week will provide some good opportunities!
Current Football Algorithm Records –
Totals Algorithm v6.2 is 0-1 (-1.1u)
4) I did however roll out the algorithms that will be operated consistently each week. Despite it being a public week in college football, the college football algorithm v3.1 that I am using all season had a 2-0 week! Nice bounce back after starting the season 0-1. Unfortunately over in the NFL, my 1st Quarter algorithm which is in a testing phase went 0-1 with Miami as we all know. Also, the NFL spread algorithm I will be featuring weekly, v2.0, lost due to taking Tampa. Both NFL algorithms went 0-1 but hey, so did college the previous week. I am hoping the NFL bounces back strong this week for the algorithms!
5) I am trying to get a long time associate of mine, Eric, to do a little spot for the newsletter each week. Eric is a professional sports bettor. I got to know him through my time in the offshore industry years ago and we became good friends. I love his strategies and takes on sports betting and am hoping he will agree to do a little content weekly for the newsletter. I will twist his arm!
6) Looking at the week ahead, I am seeing an early sharp buy on Arizona St. at +13.5. It seems every time the public pushes this line up, the sharps buy what they feel is the top. Right now they are buying at +13.5. Why not wait until 14? They probably believe that the books will not want this one to go to +14 given the sharp buy out there right now. The only way they probably go to 14 is if the public money keeps pouring in and they need the sharp money to balance the book. Over in the NFL, another Arizona is getting sharp money. Arizona +14 received a very strong sharp buy. The line was 14 at the open and then immediately went down. I could see why they like this one. I mean Arizona is not good even if they did come back to tie Detroit. However, I think the value the public is putting in Baltimore is overblown. Baltimore is getting WAAAAY too much credit for beating a joke of a Miami team. I could see Baltimore winning but the two TD mark is a lot and the +14 is a good key number.
7) What do I like? Well, you saw last week why I do not do much handicapping myself! You saw why I rely on my algorithms for the most part. Even when I do one of my rare “Personal Plays” on Twitter I still use my algorithms and other information to support my handicapping before I consider it a play. When I just straight handicap, God can I be awful! LOL!! First bit of evidence is William & Mary and the second bit of evidence is Miami. Although I guess my 1st Quarter algorithm picked Miami too so I wasn’t alone. What do I like this week? The only thing that stood out for me is Indiana +15.5 over Ohio St. Yep, another ugly dog but this one popped onto my radar because the line seems fishy. I realize it is at Indiana but I still think the line should be a higher line. Which tells me maybe I am missing something that benefits Indiana. I am not betting this one but might use it if I do a little pizza parlay or pizza teaser later in the week. If I do, I will post it to Twitter!
I think that is going to do it for me this week. As I said in the opening, the article about “The Sports Information Buffet” that I put out this week sort of took a lot of the content out of the newsletter. Hope you enjoy the article as much as I did putting it together. Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read and give the books hell this week! Hopefully the value side strikes back in football!
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays