The Sharp Plays Newsletter – Week #3

The evolution of the weekly newsletter has been a work in progress. Each week I see what I like and what I want to change in a continual effort to create what I think is the best format. Hope to continue the evolution of this newsletter as the season goes along. My goal is to create a short read but cover a variety of topics. Thanks for checking it out and your feedback!

Recap & Week Ahead –  It was a very good week for value! Obviously anyone who was a part of the RHC since Friday was able to see the dramatic change in performance. After how the public performed the previous weekend, especially in college, we were definitely due for some sharp/value success and public failure. It seems we got that this week. Now the concern becomes, does it bounce back to being a public week? If we knew for sure what kind of weekend it would be we could rule the world. While we don’t know what the weekend will bring, often the runs come in clumps. You will get 2-3 weeks of sharp success, 1-2 of public success and back and forth it will go. So it remains to be seen and we should be cautious to early signs it is a public weekend. However I am hopeful to the possibility of another big weekend for value, especially in NFL. The NFL has been more public than usual to start the season, a value regression is in order. I am curious if/when this will turn like it always does.

Algorithms – I did not have any guest appearance algorithms again this week. With running the algorithms for the Robin Hood Club and the regular weekly algorithms I did not get much of a chance. I will see what this week brings for the guest appearances. So far this season I only had a chance to post one. I did run the totals algorithm (see below) again this week but it did not have any selections. I will make sure to run it weekly to build a little sample for you to follow (or fade). I fully expect as the season goes along there will be more totals opportunities from the algorithm below. It is one of my favorites to use for NCAAF totals. The regular weekly algorithms that I post consistently were in operation as the NCAAF v3.1 went 1-1 this week to go to 3-2 on the year. The NFL v2.0 had the push with Denver and remains 0-1 on the season. The 1st Quarter NFL algorithm continued to struggle moving to 0-2 on Jacksonville. Some of you said you were able to get +3 (-125) versus +0.5 for (+100), for the extra twenty five cents, it is always an excellent deal to grab an additional 2.5 points! You saw the value of it this weekend as it made the difference between a loss and a push! The 1st Quarter algorithm showed promise last year. I am a little disappointed in the success or lack thereof to start the season but it’s VERY early. As I said, I am not giving up on it just yet. If you decide to bet it, because it is algorithm listed as “in testing”, it should be bet for pizza money only.

Current Football Algorithm Guest Appearance Records –
NCAAF Totals Algorithm v6.2 is 0-1 (-1.1u)

Early Sharp Buys (2-0)-  Last week for the newsletter I created a new feature to cover early sharp buys. I simply ran a scan of the market to see what the top early sharp buy was for NCAA and NFL last week. The plays were Arizona St +13.5 in NCAA and Arizona +14 in the NFL. Arizona State won outright and Arizona got the easy cover for a 2-0 week in the debut of this feature. So, I will be sure to do it again this week and moving forward… assuming it stays consistent and is a worthwhile angle to monitor. Another sharp angle I will be tracking every week here in the newsletter are the Late Sharp Money Totals (LSMT). So far on the season the LSMT plays are 5-1 after going 2-0 this week. I will post the LSMT plays on Twitter usually around 11:45am ET each Saturday. As for this week’s early sharp buys… I am seeing the top sharp buy in NCAAF as South Alabama to +10 over UAB. It is an interesting play. I remember UAB beating the Robin Hood Selection on Akron… a game that was a UAB cover thanks only to a missed FG and an extra point by Akron! Akron sucks as we saw what they did last week against a garbage Central Michigan team. So what does that say for UAB? Be aware that UAB is not my play, I am just reporting what I see getting the most early sharp action. However in looking at this game with my eyes, I remember I was not impressed as all with UAB so they might be getting a bit too much credit here given their competition to this point. Over in the NFL, the early sharp buy is Cleveland +3 over the LA Rams. Oh my goodness, I watched Cleveland yesterday and they looked awful to me. The defense had issues with the pass (against Falk of all QB’s) and the offense was terrible. For a large portion of the game, the Jets… the clearly awful Jets… were one TD away from covering. I have no idea what they see here other than a +3 for the home team. Maybe let down after New Orleans? Maybe West Coast to East Coast time? Makes no sense to me but cannot deny that Cleveland is the bet getting the largest NFL sharp buy at this point in the week. Let’s see what happens! Also, I am going to track the Late Sharp Money totals in this section each week. Putting them here will allow anyone visiting the website to check their record.

Late Sharp Money Totals (posted Saturdays to Twitter 11:45-11:55am ET):  5-1-0

My Handicapping (BEWARE) – I suck as a handicapper! I have no problem saying it. You saw last week why I do not do much handicapping myself! How about Indiana +16.5?? LOL!! They only lose by 41 points! In my defense I did not say I was betting it last week but still, to have the thought of Indiana +16.5 cross my mind in anyway is not good! I hope that tells you why I rely on my algorithms for the most part. Even when I do one of my rare “Personal Plays” on Twitter I still use my algorithms and other information to support my handicapping before I consider it a play. When I just straight handicap, damn can I be awful! Call me Mr. Poison Part II. LOL!! First bit of evidence was William & Mary and the second bit of evidence was Miami the same week. Then the cherry on top was Indiana. So, no need to waste your time with my handicapping prowess. Which is why if you message me looking for advice on a game not covered by my algorithms, you will get a better result flipping a coin. I was going to cut this section given my performance and convert it to something else but I guess it isn’t bad for a fade. LOL! So, let’s see how the fade goes this week. The game that caught my eye this week is BYU +6.5. They did beat USC but I think they are still underrated in quality. At home, getting +6.5 points, I like the spot against a Washington team that beat an overrated Hawaii team.

My Two Cents – I wish I knew why people are so angry and miserable. If people would just wake up every day and realize what a gift time can be. How lucky you are to be here in this moment alive. Nothing more than time… the seconds, hours and minutes of today. The past week was September the 11th. Eighteen years ago people got up that morning, just like they did every other morning. People headed to work in the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, started their shifts as police, fire, EMTs. Some got on airplanes to head across the country to visit family or go to work. Simple stuff. Things we take for granted every time we do them. We don’t expect that to be our last workday, our last shift or our last flight. Then through no fault of their own, nothing more than being in the wrong place at the wrong time, people’s lives were taken from them. Thousands of people lost friends, family and relatives. Children lost their parents. Can you imagine how hard it is for a young child to comprehend why their mother or father are no longer with them? What that does to a child never to have their mother or father there for them during the big moments of their lives? It is a loss that cannot be put into words and is never fully recovered from. A movie that captures some of this is “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”. I included the trailer below in case you aren’t familiar. If you visit the website version of this newsletter (TheSharpPlays.net/tspnews-week3) you can watch it on the page. It’s worth a quick peek and if you ever have time, give the movie a watch too. Make sure to set time when you are alone if you don’t want people to see you cry. Time is such a gift. Why spend it being angry, miserable, trolling, jealous, negative or spiteful? Go enjoy your life, have fun! All of us wish we could have just one more minute, hour or day with someone we love. I’d love the chance to have one more hour to chat with my aunt. You are given time each day, don’t waste it.

 

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read and give the books hell this week! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays