The Sharp Plays Newsletter – Week #4

Recap & Week Ahead –  It was a very good week for the content! Overall it has been a good month of content for football and I look forward to that continuing the rest of the season. I thank all of you for the messages! It is overwhelming! Speaking of content, I have made some changes based on what I see works and what I see does not or is not worth the time to do. As I have said, this football season is the first one I am doing with this level of content. So, the start to the season will be a work in progress as I find the right mix of content. Trust me in knowing what is good content to put up and what will work best. If I don’t post something, either I am not around to post it or it is not worth posting. If you have not already, I strongly advise you to check out the content update that I posted yesterday. You can read the message at this link. If you follow me to any extent, it is a must read regarding content changes and tweaks.

Since this newsletter last week I have added a new Sharp Plays Index. I completely modified the Index to now be broken down into each sport that is currently active. I removed the 5 day moving average and instead am using the 0 line as a momentum indicator. I am making these changes based on seeing what works and what does not over the past 7 months the Index had been operating. While I was very happy with the Index before this update, as I know many of you enjoyed it as well, I am hoping the new update will be even better. By breaking it down by sport you can see where the sharps are doing well, where the public is doing well, who is trending and who has the momentum. I look forward to building some data under the new calculation. In terms of recapping the betting action, it was a good week for the sharp/value side in college but not as good in the pro’s. However the NFL numbers are skewed a bit because of the fact that the Rams got the cover. A lot of exotics and straight action was locked into the Rams.

For the week ahead, I am making minor modifications to the website. Obviously I added Little John who had an uneventful weekend but keep an eye on him, he will be someone you will regularly follow once he builds a good sample size of performance before your eyes. The current week will be the first full week with Little John as an active feature. I am also tweaking up the website a little bit. Today is a slower day for me so I plan to make some modifications to things. I will be adding a new “Purchase” page which will be a central location for any of The Sharp Plays products. As I said in the content article above, the plan is to have 1-2 plays per week available for purchase. Those plays could be Robin Hood Selections (guaranteed) or Premium Plays (non-guaranteed). However no new Robin Hood Selections will be sold anytime the Robin Hood Club is in operation. I don’t want to have the potential of two Robin Hood Clubs at the same time. The goal of either selection (Robin Hood or Premium) is, as I say at the website… You are not getting a lock, you are not getting a sure thing. Buying any selection is just a means for people to show support for the free content I provide daily and in return you get a selection. My long-term goal is to hit at least 55% or better on these selections and if they do, it will be a solid success for all of us! If you are not comfortable with anything I just said… please do not purchase. I totally understand. Thank you very much for your support & generosity! The long and short of it is simply, I take pride in putting out the best quality and highest performing content I am able. Whether my algorithms, the sharp information, public information, Mr. Poison, whatever… my goal is to put out great content. Almost all of the content is free on Twitter or this website. I hope all the free content puts money in your pocket to support things important in your life! If it does, in return I would greatly appreciate you supporting things important to me with your purchase! Really that’s all these selections are about, it’s that simple.

Algorithms – I wasn’t sure what to expect from the algorithms as I sort of test the waters early in the season. So I have not had many guest appearances. I actually have only had one! It is the NCAAF Totals Algorithm v6.2 and it is 0-1. I do scan this algorithm each week and whenever it shows value I will post it up as I would like the record to improve to a winning one and make it a consistent algorithm that gets posted. So, keep an eye out and if anything comes up from that one, I will get it up there this week. In other algorithms, the NFL algorithm (v2.0) I post weekly and track on the website won with Carolina. Over in college football, the algorithm I post weekly there (v3.1) also got a win with West Virginia! I hope the trend continues with these two for the week ahead. Another trend continued but it does not make me happy is the 1st Quarter Algorithm. It is now 0-3 on the season. It started the season in a testing phase and it remains in one. I mean if it keeps losing it could be a good fade angle but that would not make sense because it was so strong last season after I created it… and I have not changed a thing. So, I am not sure if it is just bad luck or if it is just bad and last year was a fluke. I created it halfway through the season but again, it was good. I will continue to keep it in a testing phase and I will continue to post it when it has a play.

Current Football Algorithm Guest Appearance Records –
NCAAF Totals Algorithm v6.2 is 0-1 (-1.1u)

Early Sharp Buys (2-2)-  The early sharp buys went to 2-2 losing with Cleveland and South Alabama last week. The South Alabama line moved the other way on minor sharp action. It was not what appeared to be a head fake. Cleveland on the other hand just blew it. So with both losses the Early Sharp Buys are 2-2. I am of course not giving up on these just yet. I will be sure to update as the week goes along if I see counter sharp action. What did continue to perform were the Late Sharp Money Reports! Those are now a combined 9-1 going 2-0 in NCAAF and 2-0 in the NFL this week! I will report those to Twitter when they happen! For the Early Sharp Buys this week, I am seeing the top early sharp buy in college as Northern Illinois +7 over Vanderbilt. I am not personally familiar with either team. Vanderbilt obviously got manhandled this weekend but it was LSU and they can wear you down. Will Vandy be able to get up for a game against Northern Illinois this week? I don’t know but the sharps seem to like N. Illinois +7! I am seeing the top early NFL buy as Washington +3. The sharp action has arrived strong at +3 and despite it there, it is hanging due to the public money on the Giants. The Giants are getting a lot of credit for beating a poorly coached and game managed Bucs team. Division games are always tough and 3 points are always nice.

Late Sharp Money Totals (NCAAF):  7-1-0
Late Sharp Money NFL: 2-0-0

My Handicapping (BEWARE) – Once again, it’s why I put “BEWARE” in my section title last week and provided the disclaimer in the first newsletter of the season!! LOL!! I told you I suck as a handicapper! I have no problem saying it! I am pretty sure I am 0-4 this year in the newsletter with my handicapping in this section. Thank God for math!! So when I look at the card this week I noticed Baylor +2.5 over Iowa St. I know this is not the Baylor of old but the line doesn’t smell right to me. For no other reason I feel Baylor +2.5 would be a good play. Do I finally get me my first win of the season? LOL! Probably not but we will see!

My Two Cents – The topic this week is all of you! I always appreciate all the great emails and Direct Messages you send! From last night to this morning, not counting DM’s on Twitter, I woke up to another 103 messages in my inbox plus 19 messages blocked and deleted. I am just sorry I can’t reply to everyone of them however I do read all those that make it into my inbox. The common theme in those messages was don’t sweat the haters. I appreciated the sentiments but it’s actually not the haters/trolls I was talking about yesterday in my content update. I got ninety nine problems but a troll ain’t one! 😀  I actually enjoy the troll messages. The fact I am just doing my thing and it bothers people so much that they become rambling lunatics firing off messages is hysterical! I love the ones that are out to save the world from the evil that is The Sharp Plays! LOL!!! The best is when I don’t reply to someone, I block them and my mail filter report shows it deleted multiple messages each day from them over the course of the next few weeks. LOL!! Tell me that’s not funny??? I am not even replying to these people but they keep spending their time each day emailing me. I am flattered that I am on your mind so much that you spend time emailing me and sending your love!! 😘

What I was talking about in the message yesterday were the non-troll critics. If someone legitimately emails with honest criticism/opinion about let’s say parlays, I would listen. I listen because even though you are critical, it is coming from a genuine place. The problem however is there are so many people with so many opinions that it gets to the point of just being noise. Back to my gaming roots, I pride myself on doing every thing for every customer. It took me to this weekend to realize, it does not work for something like The Sharp Plays. There are too many opinions and often they are diametrically opposed. So who’s opinion do you take? One person says I should stop parlays and another person says I should bet parlays. There is no way to make everyone happy. I just do what I do and anyone that wants to come along for the ride is welcome! What really got me to change my thoughts on how I handled feedback was the Colts game in the Robin Hood Club. I had that game covered from every angle and I felt I should release it as 1 unit in the Robin Hood Club. Not 10 units or anything, my maximum of 1 unit. Not exactly a massive bet. However I paused because I thought, I am going to release this and then people are going to want to discuss how I should have done it different. Then there are those who if the play lost would act as though they can’t pay their mortgage… all because they lost 1 unit bet, etc.. However in that moment, when I settled for 0.5 units instead of 1 unit, I changed how I bet and what I do. When I sat back after the update and realized that I made a betting decision not based on my calculations but on other factors, I was pissed! In that moment I said, fuck it, from here on out I will do what I feel is best, fair and right… above all else. So that’s my new policy. I welcome feedback because there is a chance I agree with your thoughts. If I don’t, I will thank you for the time you spent sending the feedback. The Sharp Plays will never be everything to everyone. I will use my best judgement and I think it will make for a continually excellent product! I hope you will join me for the ride. If not, that’s all good too! My style and methods are not for everyone. Variety is what makes gambling fun! We all have different angles and methods that we use to attack the numbers. Let’s give those numbers hell this week!

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays