Recap & Week Ahead – It was another very good week for the content! I am sure you saw the changes in content. I removed the “known” bettor action and more of the novelty information. I know this was popular but it just became something too many people were blindly following and that was not the intention in posting it. I will continue to tweet out major wagers that go on offshore but they must meet a much higher criteria level for “known” bettors and recreational bettors. I also found out this week that people loved the weekend content recaps. I just did it to keep organized on Saturday and Sunday given the volume of information I post. However the posts were a big hit based on the emails and Direct Messages I received. I won’t do it every day but days like Saturday and Sunday where there is a ton of content out there I will put together a recap like you see below. In case you missed it, below are the recaps that were posted to Twitter covering the content from Saturday and Sunday. The parenthesis show “Free” or “Pay” just to denote if the content was free or required a purchase. The parenthesis also list where the information was posted. I often get the question, “where was this posted” when I talk about something. In the content recaps below you can see where the information was posted. I will continue to do these recaps for the weekend content and will include them here in the weekly newsletter for easy tracking throughout the season. It is also worth noting that of the 20 bits of content listed below this past weekend… 17 were available free, 3 were available for purchase. Although three were available for purchase, it was really just two independent purchases to access the information. The Robin Hood Club is just one purchase that carries over multiple days whereas the Premium Play is an individual purchase. Here’s the performance…
Premium Play 1-0 (Pay – Website)
RHC +0.65 units (Pay – Website)
Poison Fade 4-2 (Free – Twitter)
NFL v2.0 algo 1-0 (now 2-1 +0.9 units YTD) (Free – Twitter)
Personal Pan Pizza Prop 1-0 (4-1 L5) (Free – Twitter)
Sharp Soccer 1-1 hit DRAW +265 (Free – Twitter)
1st Qtr algo 1-1 (Free – Twitter)
Late Sharp Money 0-1 (2-1 YTD) (Free – Twitter)
Early Sharp Buy 0-1 (Free – Twitter)
Little John -2.53 units (+2.38 unit weekend) (Free – Twitter & Website)
Little John +4.91 units (Free – Twitter & Website)
Sharp Soccer 4-1 (Free – Twitter)
UFC algorithm 1-0 (Free – Twitter)
NCAA algo 1-1 (5-3 +1.7 units YTD) (Free – Twitter)
Late Sharp Money 1-0 (UCLA) (Free – Twitter)
Late Sharp Money Totals 2-1 or 1-1-1 or 1-2 (Free – Twitter)
RHC +0.09 units (Pay – Website)
Mr. P Fade 1-2 (Free – Twitter)
Early Sharp Buy 1-0 (TSP newsletter) (Free – Website)
My Handicap 1-0 (TSP newsletter) (Free – Website)
For more content, don’t forget to visit the website to view The Sharp Plays Index to see who is in control of the market by sport. I am excited for the new Index update and look forward to how the change can make the Index even better than it was before! Also, Sunday was the first ever Premium Play which was a big success! The content behind the Premium Play will vary. Sunday’s angle for the Premium Play was one I had been looking at in recent weeks… what is the performance when the Top 5 active sharps have a consensus on a game? It doesn’t mean all of the top sharps are betting on the game. It just means that of the Top 5 sharp bettors across two books, multiple sharps have selected the same team and none of the Top 5 sharps were betting the other way. Given how easy the win was, I think for the next Premium Play I will ride the same angle. As a reminder, I am glad the Premium Play was an easy winner. However please remember, these are not locks, these are not going to hit 80, 90% for the season or year. My expectation is they will carry a long term winning record above 56% and thereby be a profitable endeavor for anyone who purchased. If you enjoyed the content the previous week, if it helped to support things important in your life and you would like to reciprocate, the Robin Hood Selections and Premium Plays are your way to do it. Both Robin Hood Selections and Premium Plays are a minimum $25 purchase and in return you get a bonus bit of content that I do not post publicly. Robin Hood Selections carry a guarantee, Premium Plays do not. The next Premium Play will be Sunday, October 6th. The Premium Play will once again be the consensus NFL bet, without contradiction, among the Top 5 sharp bettors in action at two global books. If you would like to pre-order this week’s Premium Play you can do so at TheSharpPlays.net/premium/. Thank you for the support and remember, bet smart! Locks and “sure things” do not exist… don’t bet like they do!
For the week ahead, we get the start of the MLB Playoffs tonight. I hope that normal baseball will return for the playoffs. It will be nice to watch bullpens be someone adept at pitching and for every game not to turn into a home run derby! I am expecting to bring back the daily MLB algorithms (check them out on the Algorithms page at the website) once the playoffs start. The wild way the second half of baseball went made it an UNDER bettor’s nightmare. However we kept most of our profits from the first half of the season secure. Now I look to expand on those profits in the playoffs. So, once the playoffs start, look forward to the MLB totals algorithms being tweeted out daily when they show values! Also, the NHL starts this week! It was a very exciting year last season watching Mr. Poison in his contrarian fight against the 1st Period OVERS a.k.a. the Follow The Money 5! In honor of Mr. Poison I created a 1st Period Totals algorithm. I look forward to messing around with this algorithm all season. I will post it to Twitter daily and whenever it has a play. The performance of the 1st Period algorithm will be tracked in the “testing” records section of the website. I will also have some other NHL algorithms throughout the season. Mr. Poison was very active in NHL betting so I am sure we can expect to see him on almost a daily basis. The action really ramps up this month as playoff baseball, hockey and then eventually NBA get underway! Let’s have some fun with it!
Algorithms – The NFL algorithm v2.0 that I cover weekly on Twitter and track at the website got the win this week. The algorithm selected Buffalo +7 and while it was a very tenuous lead most of the game, it got the cover and the win! The win moved the algorithm to 2-1 on the season for +0.9 units! Over in college football, the algorithm I post weekly is the NCAAF algorithm v3.1. It went 1-1 on the day. It picked Akron which was a joke but then the second best value on Saturday was South Carolina and that was a pretty easy win. It moved the NCAAF algorithm v3.1 to 5-3 on the season and +1.7 units. I once again did not have any guest appearance algorithms. I just never get a chance to get to them it seems with all the other content. I swear I am going to make a concerted effort to do it. I have only had the one below this season and I hate seeing a losing record. So, I will hopefully have the time to get that one posted to Twitter this weekend with the top play or two. Then hopefully I can get the guest appearance category algorithms in the green! The 1st Quarter algorithm had its first winning week of the season going 2-1 for the week and 2-4 on the season. Really annoyed with this one but I am avoiding tinkering with it. Who knows, maybe it will simply be a good fade. So, I will let it roll this week and see if it can develop winning or even losing consistency. It has been in the testing category the whole season so I do not advice betting or fading material amounts of money on it.
Current Football Algorithm Guest Appearance Records –
NCAAF Totals Algorithm v6.2 is 0-1 (-1.1u)
Early Sharp Buys (2-2 YTD)- The early sharp buys went to 3-3 losing with Washington in the NFL but winning with Northern Illinois. This week the early sharp buy I am seeing in NCAAF is Michigan St +20 over Ohio St. The game makes sense for a sharp buy. The public is all over Ohio St so that is shading the line higher than it should be and the sharps are buying the overpriced spread. Over in the NFL, the play getting the clear early sharp buy is Oakland +7 down to +5.5. I did not see Trubisky as such and asset that him being out was worth a 2.5 point move to where we are now at +4.5. I think anyone but Trubisky is better but that’s me. Regardless the early sharp buy is clearly and cleanly on Oakland down to +5.5.
The Late Sharp Money Report for totals in NCAAF went either 2-1, 1-1-1 or 1-2 this week. All depends on your line but I see a number of you reported pushes or wins. I will track the Late Sharp Money performance based on the line I posted which makes these 1-2 on Saturday. The 1-2 Saturday brings the Late Sharp money totals to 8-3. The Late Sharp Money Report for sides in NCAAF won with UCLA. With the UCLA win the record improves to 3-0 on sides in NCAAF. The Late Sharp Money Reports combined side and total record therefore is 11-3 this NCAAF season! Yes, I will always keep an eye out for these each game day! Over in the NFL, the Late Sharp Money Report for totals went 0-1-0 which was the first total since adding this new feature. All of these Late Sharp Money Reports are posted free on Twitter as they happen!
Late Sharp Money Totals (NCAAF): 8-3-0
Late Sharp Money Sides (NCAAF): 3-0-0
Late Sharp Money Sides (NFL): 2-0-0
Late Sharp Money Totals (NFL): 0-1-0
My Handicapping (BEWARE) – I DID IT!!!! I got a win and moved to 1-4 on the season with my handicapping! I told you I was bad. So what do I like this week? I am siding with Virginia Tech +13.5 over Miami Florida. I know, we all thankfully watched as Duke made VTech look like a sad group. I think that is inflating this line a lot. I think Virginia Tech does have the weapons and last week might be an appropriate wake up call. I look for Virginia Tech to step up and put it all on the table on Saturday. I look for the Hokies to either win this outright in a shocker or to keep it to a TD game. Therefore taking the Hokies +13.5 sounds like a good idea to me!
My Two Cents – I am regularly asked by people what they should follow within the content I post. For example when I post Team A is getting a sharp buy, I will inevitably get the messages from people asking if they should take it, if it is a good value, etc. If it is not my algorithm play or a personal play, I have no idea why it is getting action or why a sharp is betting it. So, I am not in a position to consult on whether it is a good play or not. I am also unable to tell you if the current spread is a value because again, I don’t know the basis for the sharps taking that bet. The content I post is intended to be information used in conjunction with your handicapping and not a substitute for your handicapping. You also should not be betting every bit of content I post. Pick your spots, pick what you like, use the same angle consistently, analyze the play for yourself and then bet. Blindly following anything, no matter how good the system, is a recipe for disaster. Betting all the content is too much action, you may not be paying attention to optimal pricing among many other potential issues and you also are not learning how to assess bets for yourself if you just blindly follow. Another example is what if a “known” bettor who usually plays $25K a game just dropped $180K on Washington -180 tonight. Sounds like he knows something and so we all should follow. I mean he only ever bets $25K and now he is unloading $180K on a single play. Washington is a LOCK!!!!! Well, what if he just has a square friend with money and that square friend asks him to get $180K down for him. The “known” bettor gets the cash from his friend as security and books the bet in his offshore account. Maybe the square friend sucks and Milwaukee wins easy. You are now going… this guy sucks, how is this guy a sharp bettor??? Why would he take Washington and they get blown out. The problem is the “known” bettor didn’t pick Washington. He bet Washington for a wealthy friend and it wasn’t a play he liked using his +EV methods. Yes, that’s probably a very rare scenario that I just laid out but it illustrates, if you do not know why someone is betting then blindly following for serious money is a silly proposition. Yes looking at overall sharp buying on one side is a better angle because it dilutes the risk of the scenario I lay out above. HOWEVER the risk you have in following sharp buying is the old headfake. Sharps are sucking the books and public into a play (public follows the line move) and then before post they slam the other side… the side they really want! Head fakes are pretty cool to watch play out but if you are blindly following sharp action, you can get sucked into the wrong side of the head fake. I will be doing an article on head fakes in sports betting this week. Well, I think I will do it this week. If not, it will be in the near term as it is the next article to do on my agenda. Short message for my two cents today. Summing it up, be smart in your betting, don’t blindly follow the content I post but use it within an intelligent and comprehensive betting/handicapping strategy you employ.
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays