The Sharp Plays Newsletter – Week #6

Recap & Week Ahead –  It was a good week overall again for content. Not as good as the previous week but I am not going to complain. Could have been a huge weekend if those Titans came through for the 17.35 unit parlay for Little John. Sometimes that’s what happens. There’s always the old “IF ONLY” in gambling. For the past week it was “IF ONLY” the Titans. Maybe this week L.J. can get all the ducks get in a row for a parlay! Here’s the performance this past weekend…

SUNDAY
Premium Play 1-0
NFL Spread v2.0 Algo 1-0
Grand Salami Algo 1-0
Pro’s v Joe’s 2-0
Mr. Poison Fade 2-0
Early Sharp Buy 1-0
Little John -0.96 units
Robin Hood Club -1.12 units
Personal Pizza Prop 0-1
Late Sharp Money 0-2-1
1st Period Algorithm (testing) 0-1

SATURDAY
Robin Hood Club +1.41u
1st Period algo 2-0 +2.1u
Sharp Soccer 2-2 but +$$
NCAAF v3.1 algo 1-0 +1.0u
L. J. 1-2 +0.9u
Newsletter play 1-0
LSM sides 1-0
UFC algo 0-1 ends 5-0 run
Personal Pizza Play 0-1
Poison Fade 3-4
Early Sharp Buy 0-1
LSM totals 0-2

The Premium Plays continue to be a profitable adventure after winning on Sunday with Carolina -3. I would remind anyone getting a Premium Play to be aware of the fact that these will not hit 100% or 90%, 80%, 70% or probably even 60% lifetime. It would be nice but that’s not how things work in sports gambling. So, when betting on Premium Plays, like any play, be sure to bet intelligently and with the long-term in mind. The last two weeks I did a Premium Play in the NFL. Due to the NFL demand there is interest in doing a Premium Play in college football. I planned to offer two selections a week between the Premium Plays and Robin Hood Selections combined. So, I am going to do a Premium Play for this Saturday’s College Football! If you would like to pre-order this week’s NCAAF Premium Play you can do so at TheSharpPlays.net/premium/. Thank you for the support and remember, bet smart! Locks and “sure things” do not exist… don’t bet like they do!

For the week ahead, not much new to update on. The new content table on the front page of the website should be good. People have been asking for tracking of all the content I put out. I just did not have the time to track all the content individually and manually but thanks to the marvels of technology and EFX, I can now track all the content and cut and paste the results to the front page in less than 10 seconds. So, I hope you will enjoy the new feature which brings even more content tracking. Between the table and the records tracked on the right side of the front page, I think all the bases are covered now! In terms of content, it’ll be a normal week of running the algorithms. I will continue working on the 1st Period Totals algorithm to see if I can get that to be a consistent winner or loser. I can use anything that is consistent except something that is consistently .500. It is amazing to me that we are already moving toward the mid-way point of October. We will close our eyes and it will the Thanksgiving with the college football season wrapping up! Plenty of good college football left though! It’s a real exciting time of year with all the sports starting up and baseball winding down with the playoffs. More action than we know what to do with! I love it but soon I will be dragging from exhaustion as we approach the Super Bowl. At that time I will use whatever is left in the tank for a fun finish to the season and then it’s time for vacation!!!! My favorite part of the year!

Algorithms – The NFL algorithm v2.0 that I cover weekly on Twitter and track at the website got the win this week with Denver! Finally!! The Broncos cashed the ticket for us! With the win the algorithm now moves to 3-1 on the season for +1.9 units! Over in college football, the algorithm I post weekly is the NCAAF algorithm v3.1 and it moved to 6-3 on the season and +2.7 units thanks to Navy +3 outright over Air Force! I say this every week but I forgot to run the guest appearance totals algorithm again. HOWEVER that will not happen again. You will notice I don’t have the record for the totals algorithm below anymore on the newsletter. It is now on the website with the record in the active algorithms section. Keeping it there will keep it in my mind so I don’t forget to run it this week. I look forward to some totals for sure for the week ahead. The 1st Quarter algorithm lost again on Cleveland +0.5 after having nothing for Sunday. The loss moves it to 2-5 on the season and looking like a strong fade. I will run it again this week and if it keeps up, I will look to fade it the following week.

Early Sharp Buys (3-3 YTD)-  The early sharp buys stayed at .500 this week with a loss on Michigan St but an easy win on Oakland. For the week ahead, I am seeing the early sharp buy in college as Arkansas +7 over Kentucky. Over in the NFL I am showing the top early sharp buy as Philadelphia +3 over Minnesota.

The Late Sharp Money will no longer be tracked from a records standpoint here in the newsletter. The Late Sharp Money performance now has a place on the front page of the website where it will be tracked. Just visit TheSharpPlays.com or .net and scroll to the bottom of the main page. Speaking of which, the Late Sharp Money went 0-3 on totals across college and the NFL but 1-1-1 on sides. The winner coming on Stanford in NCAAF. Despite the bad week (they all were not going to be perfect) I will continue to keep an eye out for these each game day! All of the Late Sharp Money Reports are posted free on Twitter as they happen!

My Handicapping (BEWARE) –  OOPS I DID IT! AGAIN!!!! I am now on an epic two game winning streak to move my record to 2-4 on the season after cashing easy with Virginia Tech here in the newsletter last week. I told you I suck as a handicapper but maybe I have finally hit my stride! I hope to keep this money train chugging along for us! For the week ahead I am looking at Michigan St +10.5 over Wisconsin. I hope this one shows as a value in my algorithms when I run them later this week. I really like Michigan St here. I am not sold on Wisconsin. Don’t get me wrong, the Badgers are solid with an amazing defense. Michigan State did not cover against Ohio St but they did hold one of the best teams in the country, a far better team than Wisconsin in my opinion, to 7 points in the second half despite not doing anything on offense. I see this as a very close back and forth game. I like that I am getting over 10 points and I like that everyone thinks Wisconsin is amazing because of what they have done this year. What have they done? Beat Michigan, that’s it and that’s nothing special! Their other wins came against South Florida, Central Michigan, Kent St and Northwestern. Michigan St on the other hand has played Tulsa (we saw what they could do) and beat Northwestern by 21 at Northwestern. Wisconsin beat the same NW team by 9… at Wisconsin! I don’t see any reason not to take Michigan St and the +10.5. I could see MSU outright in this one.

My Two Cents –   I will keep my section short this week. Gamblers are always hungry for information. A gambler will always want more and more information with total disregard for whether the information is good or not. If people had their way they would have me posting content every 3 seconds on every bit of action going on. I totally get it and I appreciate you enjoy the content as much as you do. However please understand that there is also such a thing as too much content. There is a data disease known as analysis paralysis. It is a situation where you have so much data you don’t know what to do. You don’t know what to fade, what to follow and you just can’t organize or manage it all. About 95% of the betting events each day, while there is sharp and public involved on most, do not present quality informational or betting value. In only about 5%, usually a lot less, of betting opportunities on the board each day is there data or value that rises to a level worthy of betting. I have been in this business since 1999, 20 years now. I have seen everything there is to see and I have a pretty good idea of what is worthwhile information that has value and what does not. I hope you will understand and trust that if I don’t think something is of value, I won’t post it. If there is nothing good for that day, content will be very light. Other days might have a lot of content. I avoid posting content just to post content. I enjoy doing The Sharp Plays and am constantly doing what I can to make it better. One of the most important things I can do to make it better is constantly cultivate the content. I learned a lesson today in posting the Hercog content. Just because there is sharp action, with the way tennis has been going, I should have waited until the last 5 minutes prior to the definite post time. So, I would rather have 3-5 bits of content over the course of the day but for that to be standout content from the market action or values that day than to have 30-50 tweets of information that really is run of the mill data. Quality over quantity works in a lot of things and betting information is one of them! Trust that if I don’t post about some game of event, there’s probably nothing good to post.

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays