The Sharp Plays Newsletter – Week #7

Recap & Week Ahead –  It was a decent week overall again for content. Not as good as the previous couple weeks but it had some highlights as the Late Sharp Money continues to be a phenomenal angle out there. In case you missed it on Twitter, here’s the performance this past weekend…

SUNDAY
Late Sharp Money Sides 2-0 (4-1 YTD)
Mr. P fade 1-0 (big bet on LAC, loses outright)
Pro’s v Joe’s NFL 1-0
Late Sharp Money Totals 0-1 (0-3 YTD)
NFL v2.0 Spread Algo 1-2
1st Quarter Algorithm (testing) 2-3
Robin Hood Club -1.53 units
Little John -2.20 units

SATURDAY
Premium Play 1-0
Totals v6.2 Algo 1-0
Late Sharp Money Totals 3-1 (11-6 YTD)
Late Sharp Money Sides 3-1 (7-1 YTD)
Early Sharp Buy 1-0
UFC Algo 1-0
Mr. P Fade 1-1
Spread v3.1 Algo 0-1
NHL Algo 0-1
Little John -1.60 units
Robin Hood Club -2.45 units

The Premium Plays continue their run and move to 3-0 after winning with Georgia St +3.5 in an easy one. I appreciated all the interest in an NFL Premium Play as well this past week. I just did not see the opportunity in the NFL. I know I could have released a Premium Play and people would have purchased it but if it doesn’t feel right, I am not going to do it. Therefore I did not have one for NFL this weekend. Also, I say this every week but anytime something is hot it is always important to remember that these Premium Plays will not hit 100% or 90%, 80%, 70% or probably even 60% lifetime. It would be nice but that’s not how things work in sports gambling. So, when betting on Premium Plays, like any play, be sure to bet intelligently and with the long-term in mind. I am going to do a Premium Play again for this Saturday’s College Football! If you would like to pre-order this week’s NCAAF Premium Play or to get more details you can do so at TheSharpPlays.net/premium/. Thank you for the support and remember, bet smart! Locks and “sure things” do not exist… don’t bet like they do!

For the week ahead, not much to update. I think I have sort of dialed in where I want the content to be. So, I don’t think much will really be changing from now through the Super Bowl. I think the offerings available within the content I put out should provide something for everyone. It is also easy for me to manage and maintain. I am really happy with the new content tracking table on the main page of the website. Thanks again to my technology provider, EFX, for putting together a system where almost everything is automated. I just post the information to Twitter and it compiles the records in a spreadsheet which I cut and paste to the website the next day. Literally takes me 5 seconds or less to post to the website. I am sorry, the thought of manually tracking these different bits of information was a pain in the ass on top of everything else I did. To now have it be completely automated solved a lot of problems and now has basically every bit of content fully transparent… for the lovers and the haters! 😉 😀

Algorithms – The NFL algorithm v2.0 had a rough weekend to go 1-2 and move too 4-3 overall on the season for +0.70 units. Over in college the NCAAF algorithm v3.1 had a loss on Arizona but the totals algorithm which made a return got the win by a razor thin margin… but still a win! The win brought totals algorithm v6.2 to 1-1 for -0.10 units. I also had the 1st Quarter algorithms which continue to lean to being a fade as they went 2-3 and moved to 4-8 for -5.0 units. The Grand Salami had success and I look forward to one or two more plays before the season is over. Also, the daily MLB algorithms had success last week and are again above +40 units of profit on the season! The 1st Period algorithm started slow but is near turning a profit as well. Hope it continues that momentum this week and becomes official soon! Lastly, I expect to have an NHL Grand Salami algorithm out this week! Keep an eye on Twitter for its launch!

Early Sharp Buys (4-4 YTD) –  The early sharp buys stayed at .500 this week again this week. It’s like a perfect 1-1 every week it seems. Just can’t get over the hump. I have found that if the line does not move any further from the number I post in the newsletter, it has not performed as well. Almost like sharps were just buying a number versus betting information. It got the win in college on Arkansas +7 which completely beat the line move down to +4 or even +3 in some spots. A good example of a line moving after it was listed here. In the NFL it got the loss with Philadelphia which was a good example of no line movement equaling no performance. When I listed Philly as the early sharp buy it was at +3 and the game went off at +3 or +3.5… actually moving the other way. So, keep an eye on the line movement the rest of the week as verification on there. For this week, in NCAAF the top Early Sharp Buy is Oregon St +11.5 and +11 over California. In the NFL, the Early Sharp Buy is Oakland +7.5, +7,+6.5 over Green Bay.

My Handicapping (BEWARE) –  I was on a good 2-0 run but that came to an end last week with Michigan St +10.5 and moved my record now to 2-5! Oh boy, what a fade. Do with this opinion as you please but here’s what I am looking at, I like Detroit -1 over Minnesota. Detroit was by far the better team and should have had an easy win. Failure to close in the red zone is what killed them. Due to the loss on national TV, they are not getting a lot of credit here. Minnesota is a team to me that is over achieving. Little John went against the fade overrated Minnesota angle last week and it bit him in the ass. I am going to do it this week and hope it is the Lions who are biting the Vikings. I am on Detroit -1 over Minnesota!

My Two Cents –   I wasn’t sure what to do for My Two Cents this week. Always a lot of topics on my mind so instead of just one, I will touch on a couple. The one on the forefront had to do with everyone’s opinions because it was a busy week for those. I really appreciate my audience here at The Sharp Plays and I thank all of you for following! I hope the content continues to be profitable and helpful to you in your betting. As I say at the end of every newsletter, which applies to all feedback is… I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉   Please don’t take it personal if I do not make changes based on your feedback. Sometimes I do act on feedback but often I do not. I simply do what works best for me. If it means there is 1 person left following me, so be it. At least I am doing what makes me happy. “Sometimes in your quest to make everyone else happy, you make yourself miserable” – Susan Gale  I don’t want to be miserable! So, sorry but first and foremost I am all about making me happy and I hope what makes me happy and what I enjoy doing is also interesting and fun for you too!

Speaking of which, I do what I do at The Sharp Plays primarily for the fun of it. I love the interaction with the lovers and the haters. I love celebrating the wins and blowing up over the losses. It is something I look forward to doing LONG into the future. I appreciate that many of you enjoy my corrupted and maniacal humor. LOL! One of my favorite attempts at comedy is I love to toss hooks into the water and wait for the haters to bite. It’s much more fun than it probably should be but I love it. I love to say something and get a reaction! I can’t help myself in posting something was a no sweat cover, when there was a ton of sweat involved and having someone comment… “That’s wasn’t an easy cover but whatever.” LOL! I threw the hook in the water and in your hate filled stupidity you latched right on. You attempted in your response to show how smart you are by comparison but in actuality you became my puppet! LOL! I said something, pulled your string and you couldn’t control yourself but had to react to it. Now that’s the real power of The Sharp Plays, people cede total control of themselves over to me! LOL!! I tossed one out yesterday about Kevin Garrett in the Robin Hood Club. Actually disappointed I didn’t get any hater love on that one. I thought for sure someone would post a comment about it or I would get a hater DM about it. Someone telling me… “Yo stupid, it’s Jason Garrett not Kevin!” LOL! I guess I have to step my game up in the future. Although, maybe it was because I didn’t do it publicly on Twitter but just in the Robin Hood Club. Even asked my email service to put any emails that arrived yesterday referencing Kevin Garrett in my folder. Not a single hater one came through. 🙁 If you aren’t in the Robin Hood Club, suffice it to say it was just an inside joke. Anyway, to the followers, I appreciate you having a lot of fun with me. I look forward to a lot more fun. To the haters, thanks for providing comic relief! I will keep tossing those hooks in the water and watch you bite on them like a mindless bass! Although a bass might be a little smarter, at least they are trying to eat when they bite a hook. What’s your excuse? LOL!

Last thing for this week is a very important topic which is betting drawdown and patience. I compiled two articles put out by Pinnacle Sports on both topics. You can find those articles together at https://thesharpplays.net/sports-betting-drawdowns-by-pinnacle-sports/. If you are in any way serious about betting, the articles are MUST READ material! Especially the article on drawdown. The Robin Hood Club reached its worst drawdown in recorded history this week. It was down -7.35 units. It has since recovered to -6.15 units. To me, as a gambler with 100 units of bankroll or even a gambler with 50 units of bankroll (typical minimum you should have), I didn’t see 6.15 units as much. However based on various responses, it seemed 7 units was a handful of people’s entire bankroll. I thought if someone is this panicked over 7 units, they stand no chance of being a long term professional or unprofessional bettor. The reason is based on statistical probability, a bettor who bets regularly will experience a 20-25% drawdown at points in their gambling. Meaning wherever you get your bankroll to, at some point you will give 20-25% of it back before moving back up the ladder again. It’s like the stock market. You buy a stock at $10, it moves right up to $20, goes down to $15, then to $22 and then $19 and then up to $28, etc. As you can see the stock you bought went from $10 to $28 which is great but along the way you had to experience some pain, at one point giving back 25% of your total investment in the move from $20 back down to $15. All investing, except maybe savings bonds or CDs has this wave pattern of ups and downs. If you aren’t ready for sports betting to have ups and downs of 20-25% or more, it’s best you stop now. Nobody will stop based on what I said but just be aware you are going to have a tough time handling the financial pain when it inevitably comes if you aren’t prepared for it. Give those articles a read in your free time.

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays