Recap & Week Ahead – It was a good weekend overall for content but there were moments of very good and very bad. In case you missed it on Twitter, below were the breakdowns of the action from the weekend. Also, don’t forget to check the main page of the website (TheSharpPlays.com or TheSharpPlays.net) each morning to view the updated content tracking table.
Premium Play 1-0 (now 5-0 YTD)
Mr. P Fade 3-0
Sharp Soccer 1-0
Late Sharp Money Totals 1-0 (LSM 39-14 YTD 73.6%
Spread v2.0 Algorithm 1-0
Robin Hood Club +0.08 units
Early Sharp Buy 0-1
Pro’s v Joe’s NFL 0-1
Little John -3.2 units
Premium Play 1-0
Early Sharp Buy 1-0
Grand Salami Algo 1-0 +1.2u
Late Sharp Money Sides 3-1 (10-1 YTD)
Mr. Poison Fade 2-1
Little John +0.40 units
1st Period Algo 1-1
Late Sharp Money Totals 1-1
Robin Hood Club -1.19 units
Totals Algo 0-2
Spread Algo 0-2
The Premium Plays continue their run and move to 5-0 after winning with Central Michigan on Saturday and then Indianapolis on Sunday. It has been a very good run on these and I think it will be a good angle to monitor well into the future. Please remember… I say this every week but anytime something is hot it is always important to remember that these Premium Plays will not hit 100% or 90%, 80%, 70% or probably even 60% lifetime. It would be nice but that’s not how things work in sports gambling. So, when betting on Premium Plays, like any play, be sure to bet intelligently and with the long-term in mind. Do not bet expecting Premium Plays will go 20-0, 19-1, 17-3 over the next 20 plays. Sure they could but the chances are very low. Instead, bet as though we expect a 12-8 record over the next 20 plays and you never know when those 8 will occur! If you do that, these will be a very enjoyable and profitable endeavor! I am going to do a Premium Play again for this Saturday’s College Football! As I do every Tuesday, the PREORDER is now open! So, if you would like to pre-order this week’s NCAAF Premium Play or to get more details on Premium Plays, you can do so at TheSharpPlays.net/premium/. Thank you for the support and remember, bet smart! Locks and “sure things” do not exist… don’t bet like they do!
For the week ahead, we have the start of the NBA! I love some good weeknight NBA action. As I said recently, the action gets hot and heavy now. Soon we will have college basketball added to the mix. We lose MLB shortly but the volume of action in November and December is through the roof. Most nights getting to choose from NBA, NCAABB, NHL, NCAAF and/or NFL. Not even counting soccer and tennis! A big difference from those Tuesday’s in August when we had some MLB and that was it! It’s a fun time of year but with all that action… remember bankroll management!
Algorithms – The NFL algorithm v2.0 got a win on Baltimore +3 easy over Seattle to move to 5-3 overall on the season for +1.7 units. Over in college it was a rough time as the totals algorithm and the spread algorithm both went 0-2. Yuck! The highlight from the algorithms has been the NHL Grand Salami which moved to 5-0 and +5.0 units on the season after yesterday. I hope to see the success there continue. The 1st Period algorithm continued to be a good fade. I am not advising any real money betting at this time but hopefully move the 1st Period algorithm to an active phase later this week. With the start of NBA I will have a regular NBA algorithm that I will post. I am not sure what I will use at this time. With all the other action I didn’t get a chance to sit down and think what I would like to post consistently. I will have a regular algorithm for the NBA however just like I do the other sports. Stay tuned for that in the first few days of the season.
Early Sharp Buys (5-5 YTD) – It’s funny, this section consistently goes 1-1 each week. I have debated whether to continue doing this section but it’s worth checking out the early sharp action. Gives you an idea of what the sharps have their eye on. Let’s see if this week it can finally turn the 2-0 week for a change. The early sharp buy in college football is on Michigan St at +6.5 over Penn St. What an ugly play! Probably what makes it a good bet is the fact it is so ugly. Michigan St hasn’t been able to do anything on offense and their defense hasn’t even looked that great recently. Yet despite that they are getting the highest early sharp concentration of money once the line hit 6.5. Books seem to be maintaining the line because as expected, the public LOVES Penn St. The books seem to want the +6.5 sharp money to help reduce their Penn St exposure. The early sharp buy in the NFL is on Denver at +6! Oh my God, talk about the battle of awful. Which team would you rather take?? Michigan St or Denver?? LOL!! Two ugly plays getting action and of course the public is on the other sides of the sharps on both of these. It’s always interesting to see how they play out. Will it be another 1-1 week or will the trashiest two team parlay of the week, Michigan St & Denver, cash the ticket?!?!?
My Handicapping (BEWARE) – I picked Detroit for this section which now takes me to 2-6 on the year! Yet despite my poor attempt at handicapping, people still ask me what I like for games. If you are one of those people, it’s also why I tell you if I see no good information on the game and I do not have anything on the algorithms, I have nothing for you. My opinion without those tools is about as good as flipping a coin! Where does my coin land this week? I like Rice +10.5 (Pinnacle) over Southern Miss. Rice is a very underrated team and they got embarrassed this past week in a game they really could have won easily. The four turnovers killed them and they lost by 4. I think they could win this one outright this week but I won’t be that crazy. I’ll take the +10.5.
My Two Cents – The hottest thing recently is the Late Sharp Money! It’s been a big topic of conversation and interest. It’s kind of what happens when something goes 39-14 for 73.6% ATS over just a handful of weeks. Naturally people ask what makes up Late Sharp Money? Sharps are betting all the time. So just because sharps are betting close to post time, even if concentrated on one team, does not qualify something as “Late Sharp Money”. What I scan for in a Late Sharp Money is when bettors rated as sharp within the book’s system are placing tickets at the betting limit or within 20% of the limit (so $8,000 or more on a bet with a $10K window limit), at the same time and very close to post time. It takes that specific scenario. Anything else and it doesn’t qualify. So there can be late sharp money arriving on almost every game. Even late sharp money that moves the line. However for a bet to qualify as one of the “Late Sharp Money” games that I report, I need to see concerted, high limit, sharp betting coming in at a fast pace, from a wide variety of sharp bettors, within 15 minutes before game time. It’s a fun and exciting angle to watch and it has proven quite strong so far. The reason I bring this up is over the past week, any time a line moved in any sport close to game time I would get DM’s asking… “is this late sharp money??”. The answer could be “yes” but it doesn’t qualify as a “Late Sharp Money” game for me. The answer could also be “no”, it’s just the public coming in late. Of all the late line moves before game time, only about 5% or less qualify as Late Sharp Money based on the parameters I have set to monitor within two global books. Please don’t be chasing every move you see, it’s a strategy that WILL NOT end well!
Also, I get asked all the time about all these different apps and services that give ticket and money percentages. Listen there is no substitute for getting information direct from the books. Not in the form of percentages but actually being able to see what type of bettors are betting what within the markets. Yes, if you don’t have that access then the ticket & money percentage services/apps are an option for a GENERAL and INCOMPLETE idea of the action. However they probably are not as helpful or informative as you might feel. If you follow these percentages, especially if you consider them gospel, I strongly suggest reading my article Why Ticket/Money Percentages Don’t Tell The Whole Story. Be aware that because you have to speculate based on what you see (as opposed to knowing for sure who is betting) that those percentages do not give you the full story. Just because a line is moving does not mean it is sharp money. Books move lines for the public, to take positions, to offset other team risks, etc. Be aware of these things when betting your hard earned dollars on money and ticket percentages given out by books. If the information was actually valuable and would help you beat the books… why would the books happily & readily offer it publicly!?! Why would the books allow other services providers access to their percentages so they could provide them to gamblers? It’s because the information generates action with no real edge to the player. You will win and lose based on your handicapping of the percentages and what they mean but in the end, it won’t provide you an advantage. It’s a perfect recipe for the books! You see these percentages, make speculations and bet those speculations. Books then get the benefit of that volume. Books just want all the volume they can get to grind their edge.
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays